Looking ahead, Brock vs Carwin

OUSOONERSOU wrote:

Carwin by TKO in the 1st

disclaimer: this post was made by an extreme Brock hater.

LOL, I wouldn't mind that outcome, I just don't see it playing out that way.

I think the lay-off is going to hurt Lesnar and would have liked to have seen him have a tune-up fight before taking on a guy like Carwin.I've got to go with my fellow Coloradan and pick Carwin by stoppage.

Well I would say the UFC HW Division has been decent to very good for the last 1 1/2 to 2 years. The Timmy/AA era's were completely overrated and overshadowed by the legacy of Pride during their time. The problem I have is everyone who is a Fedor fan, bashed the shit out of them until it was time for them to fight Fedor, then I had to hear how great they were. Timmy began his decline with Randy, but Randy got a better Tim than Fedor did. AA was always overrated in my opinion, though he had great hands, he has always had a suspect chin.

No I will grant that Randy isn't the same fighter he was 5 years ago much less 10, but he is still a quality opponent and a name. Herring is one of the toughest guys I have ever seen, GG has always been up and down, Werdum has questionable stand-up yet a great ground game, Brett Rogers is a joke and now everyone knows it, Mir though still a good fighter is on the decline, I can do this shit all day. I give Fedor credit for his longevity and the quality of his opponents 5 years ago and beyond. I give Brock credit, because that neanderthal is brutal, I give Shane credit for his punching power and his work ethic. I only actually like one of those guys and Fedor and Brock are not it. But Fedor is stil number one in the weight class and I have never voted otherwise. But it doesn't mean I have to kiss his ass.

Kandid response. Don't know why it was negged. Thanks Drew

Do you think Fedor only signed to fight Timmy, AA and Rogers because he knew they were overrated? Or is Fedor just a victim of circumstance here?

Wolfgangsta wrote:

Do you think Fedor only signed to fight Timmy, AA and Rogers because he knew they were overrated? Or is Fedor just a victim of circumstance here?

Yeah. Its a big conspiracy that Fedor lines up overrated top 5 HWs, smashes them, and those fighters are exposed later down the road. Fedor must be a genious to be able to pull that scam off over the length of his career. Just don't understand it. To think he hasn't fought anyone good in 5 years is beyond my comprehension.

I am leaning towards Shane now too.

Everyone looks at the tale of the tape, which across the board has Lesnar being a "better version" of Carwin, but the one thing that is a clear advantage for Carwin is his power punching ability. Yes Lesnar hits hard and broke Heath's orbital bone, but Carwin has proven to be the much more devastating short range power puncher. In this, Brock may be at a serious disadvantage. He runs a pressure, wrestling based style. If he gets sprawled or is unable to just toss Carwin around on muscle, things become very very dangerous for Brock. He will have to become an outside boxer and stay the fuck out of Carwin's range. Brock would have to use his reach and footwork and stay off the cage. His style is nearly opposite of that, he wants to get close, and that becomes the problem when Carwin can generate such force inside such a small space with short punches.

However, it could be that Brock has the same power punching ability himself, and just hasn't used it by happen chance. Maybe even Carwin and his superchin will be scraped off the canvas after a two power punch combination from Lesnar, we really don't know.

Wrestling in MMA still has a lot of elements that ring rust can impact. Look at how Rampage performed against a smaller wrestler after a lay off. Due to the mutual strength factor, timing and technique will come into play in this bout more than they have in the past for either fighter. This favors Carwin who has had recent activity, and has been able to actively train, specifically for this fight even for a period of time, while Brock was fighting for his life and career.

I think the injured fighter is at a big disadvantage when their bout is put off until a later date. Liddell against Rashad is another instance where extra camptime was useful in the final strategy. Liddell cancelled the fight originally due to his hammy. Rashad kept on trucking through an extended camp.

Yeah, those short power punches of Carwin are scary and his strength and wrestling should be good enough to sprawl Brock long enough to land a few of those anvils on his dome. Outside punching is the answer for Brock, and he cannot clinch, it's a takedown or nothing.

I really, really want Shane to beat Brocks ass, but I think Brock is gonna be able to take Carwin down and gnp the shit out of him. Brock ain't gonna play around with Carwin on the feet, he's gonna put him against the cage, wear him down and get the takedown if not get the takedown right off the back.

I hope I'm wrong, please let me be wrong.

So then in your mind no one really has the tools to stop his takedowns in MMA?

Wolfgangsta wrote:

So then in your mind no one really has the tools to stop his takedowns in MMA?

Yeah that's pretty much how I feel. I feel like Carwin might fight off the takedown for a few against the fence but he's gonna end up on his back. And let me repeat myself I hope I'm wrong

Is it just the strength factor? Because Lesnar's technique has always been questioned. Against someone who is as strong or close to it as Carwin, or Cain for that matter, I really question his ability to steamroll with his power oriented game. Look at the trouble he had with 220 lb Couture.

Brock doesn't look as unbeatable to me as he does to others. People assume he has super powers or something. He is just a man, a giant strong man who wrestled in college. Carwin fits that bill too.

People act like Brock will somehow easily take Shane down. I don't think this is the case. Brock prolly hasn't even spared with a wrestler the size of Shane and honestly I thing his wrestling is overvalued. It's not even close to Cain's level.

Honestly I think we might see two fighters that gas out after one or two rounds and end having a boring fight. I really think Brock is gonna have a hard time just throwing Shane around like he did Mur and Randy and I think Brock is going to understand what Shane's threats are to him are and not let Shane inside his reach.***

I think they are going to hug each other to death against the cage and if a KO punch happens, it'll happen there.

*** I base this prediction on absolutely nothing

MMAEYES wrote:

Wolfgangsta wrote:

So then in your mind no one really has the tools to stop his takedowns in MMA?

Yeah that's pretty much how I feel. I feel like Carwin might fight off the takedown for a few against the fence but he's gonna end up on his back. And let me repeat myself I hope I'm wrong

You did see Randy stuff his TD right? I'm sure Carwin is training for the TD, he should be ready for it. Not saying Brock can't take him down, but it shouldn't be an easy task.

OUSOONERSOU wrote:

MMAEYES wrote:

Wolfgangsta wrote:

So then in your mind no one really has the tools to stop his takedowns in MMA?

Yeah that's pretty much how I feel. I feel like Carwin might fight off the takedown for a few against the fence but he's gonna end up on his back. And let me repeat myself I hope I'm wrong

You did see Randy stuff his TD right? I'm sure Carwin is training for the TD, he should be ready for it. Not saying Brock can't take him down, but it shouldn't be an easy task.

If I'm not mistaken he only stuffed one and then Brock realized Randy was dumb enough to just stand in front of him and throw.

Exactly sooners. Now, let's not pretend that Carwin is as good of a wrestler as Couture or anything, but the big x factor here is the real skill Carwin does possess, combined with his strength. I think that is more than enough to convince me Carwin should block some of his takedowns.

Brock does spar with giant wrestlers. They're all boring fat slobby HWs who lay and pray. Chris Tuscherer and Cole Konrad.

Oh by the way, take Tuscherer in his fight against Shaub. Last I looked the line had Shaub a huge favorite when Shaub is probably a natural LHW and has no wrestling pedigree. Easy money there.

I think the one area Brock has Shane, in the wrestling category, is that Brock seems more explosive, while Shane seems a little more stiff. THat could be where Brock could get a takedown -- in a situation where he's maybe driving Carwin back, and then changes angles slightly. Against the cage, I think Brock would have a harder time getting him to the ground. I think he will need space to get it.

The question is how does he set-up a good shot with outside punching?

My prediction is that they start out the fight with some timid striking with Carwin a little more confident coming forward, while Brock paws with a jab, until he shoots for a takedown. The fight hinges on that moment. If Brock doesn't get the takedown, then Carwin could finish the fight while the champ scrambles. If Brock does get it then he could end Carwin's night by smothering and gnp'ing. It's a first round finish in my mind, which should favor Carwin since his fights never get out of the first.

You got that right, setting up the take down will be the key. If Brock can find the right time to use his speed and take the shot he has a great chance at being successful. If Carwin is prepared and disciplined it is going to be extremely tough for Brock.

Who is to say Carwin won't shoot on Brock? Brock doesn't train with good takedown guys. Konrad could barely get a D3 wrestler to the mat who he outweighed by 30 pounds in that Bellator fight. Like sooners said, setting up the takedown is important. This is where ring rust comes into play.

Another wild card will be the ability either fighter has to get off their back. If Brock is able to take Carwin down but can't keep him there, the fight dynamic changes again, and vice versa.


As for Brock being more explosive, that may or may not be the case. 100% of Carwin's opponents leave the cage with the assistance of doctors three minutes or less into the fight. More of Lesnar's fights than not have made it into the second round.

Brock takes it slow in fights and hasn't had those can type guys on his record which he very well could have beaten similarly to Carwin.

I don't know, the way he was moving on the mat against Mir in his first match was very impressive. I doubt that Carwin could move his 265+ frame the same way.