FreakPoll+WolfWall : Can it do a million buys? Should the UFC make it an official tournament?

UFC 146 easily should be the biggest fight of the year. I see no other reasonable fight on the horizon that could top this card in 2012.

Even if GSP and Condit square off, this has a good chance to beat it. Even though Condit is normally a bad ass, fairly and squarely beat Diaz, is sold as champ himself now, and is the legit number 2 WW, his brand took a huge hit with the way he beat Diaz. My facebook wall is a good metric for casual opinion and all I heard about there was Condit's a pussy this, Diaz robbed that. And Condit was, despite his normally fan friendly style, largely unknown anyway prior to that. This coincides with GSP's brand being as stale as ever. There is also the fact Condit will still be a major underdog to St. Pierre. The casual PPV buyers who ignore amazing lighter weight fighters like Frankie Edgar and Jose Aldo, and ignored Anderson Silva for most of his career, are still smart enough to see that Condit doesn't stand much of a chance to force GSP out of his comfort zone. And the promos for that fight will be snooze-fests unless the UFC manufactures some serious false drama out of the Greg Jackson connection. GSP has been off the market for a while, and while it is true absence makes the heart grow fonder and supply impacts demand, the reasons listed above could create the perfect storm that leads to GSP's worst performing fight in years.

I don't know if I see this card doing over a million buys as I don't think any fight in this climate could, besides maybe Jones/Silva, GSP/Silva or the now lost Diaz/GSP champ vs champ super fights, but it could come close to it easily. If any card does a million this year, this is the one. It has every guy who ever beat Lesnar, including whatever PPV momentum is left out of the Latino push with Cain, TUF winners, Fedor killers, a guy who just killed Kongo and everyone who buys PPV's knows and hates that motherfucker, the lineal title returning to the UFC HW division finally(as if anyone besides me and Johnathan Snowden ever cared about this once Fedor lost) and a fight that makes a legitimate real claim as the battle of the two best stand up HW's ever. It has just enough freak show spice ; Hulks, Monsters, Giants and Bigfoots.

I don't know how much weight K-1 and Strikeforce titles really hold with the casual UFC guys, but Overeem I think has proven himself legit to UFC fans. He beat Lesnar in a fight that did much better than I expected, proving Brock still had a perception as the biggest, baddest dude in MMA, and unlike Cain who is boring and average looking, is a similarly built monster. I think there is almost an automatic casual assumption that foreign champs, Japanese champs, and non-UFC champs coming in and fighting for the title are frauds with no chance, but the Strikeforce guys have done a lot to soften that perception by winning and also delivering action packed brawls in recent months.

UFC PPV buyers are getting immune to constant White-Goldberg-Rogan hyperbole and promo clip claims of BEST EVER, BIGGEST EVER...LITERALLY before every single fight. That said, there is a lot of mileage they can get out of this card being 2500 lbs of all vicious, finisher heavyweights. Pasted from the yahoo article ; These 10 heavyweights average 6 feet 3 inches and 253 pounds. Most interesting, though, is that they have combined for a 162-51 record, and have 144 finishes among those 162 victories, according to records from Sherdog. They've combined for 83 knockouts and 61 submissions. That shit will play with buyers big time.

They could juice this card up even more with making this an official tournament as well. As it is, it is already basically a mini HWGP with the top four HW's matched up, with the winners set to square off. Even if they don't make it an official tournament, that should be played up too in a big way in the marketing campaign for this event. That scheme worked well with Nog-Mir-Lesnar-Couture deal a couple years ago, and even sans an interm title, it would work here. People like tournaments. The NFL playoffs and March Madness drive this nation crazy. Nobody likes baseball in April(besides Cubs fans, when we're still in it) but Everyone Loves October(besides Cubs fans ). A general rule of thumb to abide by in entertainment in 2012 - Bitches like Twilight, men like tournaments. Even though the GP wasn't the Neo-Pride classic we hoped for, if you remember, the internet was buzzing when SF announced the HWGP to the point it made the UFC pull the trigger on the purchase. Beyond that, The Super Six, while convoluted and disappointing in some aspects, also proves that tournaments create extra fan interest in American combat sports. Considering the UFC completely abandoned their once strict anti-tournament stance(which was nothing more than dumb, anti-Pride, anti-preZuffa era chauvinism by White to set his brand apart) with the 125 tournament we just started(though managed to fuck up inexplicably), non-title fights can be five rounds, and tournament fights don't have to be three rounds, why not make the co-main four or five rounds?

The odds of Brandon Vera winning the UFC HW title are higher than that fight actually going the distance, but just as a marketing tool this makes perfect sense. To add intrigue, to raise the stakes, why the hell not? I am a sucker for gimmicks, and you could argue adding another round or two rounds would be a gimmick, but I know I am not the only sucker who watches the UFC.

No and no.

Why and why?

what is this facebook wall you speak of?

Impenetrable wall of text is impenetrable.

Gay. I need to post this around some other MMA websites so the half hour I spent on it doesn't go to waste. I wish I wasn't banned at BE because leland rolling is a homosexer. Mania it is...

I say no and no. We all know it is technically a tourney so we really dont need it called one and I definitely dont see a million buys for it either.

How many buys? I guess I am alone in the fact making it a for really real tournament would add to the excitement.

It shouldn't be an "official" tournament because half the bracket doesn't deserve to be in a tournament for a title shot. Mark Hunt is on a roll lately but he's been fighting the Ben Rothwell's and Chris Tucshererererer's. Struve is coming off two straight freakshow fights with the two smallest heavyweights on the roster. Gonzaga just got back into the promotion and was in the most bizarre looking fight since Shamrock/Severn 2 in Detroit. Del Rosario just hasn't fought anybody yet. Nelson... Yeah I don't even have to say it.

Bigfoot, Cain, and Mir would be the only fighters who deserve to take part in a tournament with a title shot at the end.

I guess I didn't clarify well enough or I just posted more than you could read. I mean a mini-four man tourny with just the main and co main getting tournament billing. Just like they did with brock/couture/mir/nog and the fighters that were pretty fly for a black, asian and two white guys. I want a four man official tourney. Give it to me baby. Uh huh uh huh.

I don't see it hitting a million, which seems like a really high watermark for any fight to hit in the current climate. Could definitely see like 650-700k with the right promotion to the casuals of good ole-fashioned 250 lb men knocking each other fun

The tournament aspect doesn't really do anything for me one way or the other. We already know the importance of the top 2 fights. SDR is fighting for the first time since a career-threatening injury against a guy who was in what amounted to a squash match in his first fight back after being cut. Hunt-Struve has glorified freak show status with both guys being viewed as auto-stoppages against the top dudes in the division.

Even as the new depth of the HW division is stressed, its still so bad compared to other divisions when you run down the names. Get Barnett, Cormier, and Fedor in the UFC

http://humancockfighting.blogspot.com/

Used this as a blog post to launch my nu-shit.

I don't think it his a mill either, but this is the only fight that has a chance. I wish we had more PPV business nerds here.

I think 500K would be a more realistic number...that it still doesn't reach.

SF LW GP
Pettis vs Gil
Healy vs Thompson

OU wrote:

I think 500K would be a more realistic number...that it still doesn't reach.

I disagree. This will be a special card. Diaz vs Condit for a fake title did those numbers. Jon Jones does those numbers. Those are good buyrates, but this is a special card for reasons I outlined above. A super card a lot like The Ultimate 2008. Not exactly like it, but a lot like it. That card had none of the mega-draws, but it had enough really solid draws coming together in the perfect moment to create the perfect storm. If this card doesn't hit 500k, then PPV isnt a dying industry set to expire at some future point undefined, it's a cancer patient gone terminal. That low of a number would be cause for serious alarm for the UFC. That would be a horrible sign for MMA. I think 700-750 is what we should expect minimum. Anything less and this card under performs.

The ridiculously huge numbers of UFC 92 came as a result of Rashads horrific KO of Liddell, Forrest's popularity and exposure, an intriguing HW fight between guys featured prominently on TV( and I might add, part of a mini tournament!), and the former champ taking on a compelling opponent where you knew someone was getting finished.

Nottheface had a great article on BE some two years ago about the biggest draws in UFC PPV history, and one thing they all shared was they were chained off the WWE eyes Shamrock brought, and then off each other. Shamrock > Ortiz > Liddell. The mantle would pass to the next draw in succession. This card has everyone Lesnar has ever lost to on it. Just like the Ultimate 2008 had both guys who killed Liddell. While there are no recent TUF coaches, or TUF winners in the big fights this time, Cain, Dos Santos, Reem and Mir are right now probably the four most casually exposed, top ranked guys that one weight class has seen come together at one moment. And in the HW division no less. Cain had a good bit of mainstream momentum after the Lesnar fight, then was sidelined by injury and defeated, but I don't think he has lost it all. He brings the Mexican fight fans who really did embrace him. Mexicans always respect the fighters that beat their guys(that is why Pacman performs great in the Mexican boxing fan demo) so they'll definitely want to see a card with both Dos Santos, and Cain. I suspect this card will perform very strongly in that demographic. Dos Santos has nothing but stellar KOs and a vicious reputation already, and beat Cain on Fox in front of every casual that's ever watched the sport on the Fox bout. That type of exposure is better than TUF. That is huge. And it has Overeem, opposite of him, who in addition to being the reigning kickboxing and Strikeforce champion, also crushed Lesnar in front of a PPV audience that was surprisingly large for a non-title fight, and on a Friday. Lesnar vs Reem did at least 750k. Like right after Evans vs Liddell, I think Reem's hype is going to feed off that in a big way. Mir, for his part, is coming off a historical, epic win as well and also has a Lesnar connection.

You guys don't think making the co-main an official tournament fight matters, but in this context, I think it does. Because it almost adds a second title fight in effect, and PPV buyers traditionally love that noise. Short of tape delayed fights ruined by word of mouth(112), and WEC weight class cards, every two title fight PPV has been huge. Every one with a HW title fight as one of them on it has broken a million buys. I think it definitely would resonate with the ethnic fans Cain brings with him by giving their guy something tangible to fight for. Perception dictates much with fight fans, and putting Cain and Mir together in a quasi-titular sense changes the fight's marketing entirely. Adds more value to Cain's fans than a plain ol' number 1 contender fight by raising the stakes. Look at Bellator, they could sign the same bunches of dudes, and basically book fights more or less the same, winners moving on toward a title, but the formal brackets quantify and add significant value to a stable of otherwise talent, but usually utterly unknown fighters. Something like 80% voted MORE TOURNAMENTS when Strikeforce did a text poll during the women's BW tournament.

I should tweet this shit to Dana.

OU wrote:

SF LW GP
Pettis vs Gil
Healy vs Thompson

The rumor is Gray Maynard now, and that fight makes a LOT more sense for the UFC and Maynard. Pettis is a guy who could potentially sell buys at LW, something which has proven difficult, and the most marketable contender out there sans maybe Nate Diaz. Maynard however right now is the least marketable contender considering he just fought in two fights and did not win either time. It would take him a while to be PPV ready again, and he'd be a contender killer in the mean time. His best bet is to try and win the Strikeforce title and defend it a couple times. He makes exactly shit for PPV points so main eventing for Showtime probably won't pay any less. And if he beats Gilbert and defends his title, he could still make a case for #1 LW.

Thompson is a good contender too but lets not pretend he is anywhere near as good as Maynard is.

How stupid of me.
UFC LW GP
Bendo vs Frankie
Nate vs Jim

OU wrote:

How stupid of me.
UFC LW GP
Bendo vs Frankie
Nate vs Jim

Neither Jim or Nate deserve it.

freakzilla wrote:

OU wrote:

How stupid of me.
UFC LW GP
Bendo vs Frankie
Nate vs Jim

Neither Jim or Nate deserve it.

What's done is done. This is how the bracket looks. Learn, love it, live it.

Freak you would bankrupt the UFC. How is it you watch MMA as much as us but can't understand it at all?

So who are the contenders then who are so much more deserving than a winner between those two? Nate is bad ass looking these days, wrecking fulls in true Diaz style fashion. He beat the breaks off Cowboy, who was cruising to his own title shot at the time, thereby taking a lot of momentum with him, and before that, beat ATG Gomi. You can throw the Gomi win away if you want and look at his losses at WW, but last time out at LW he was fighting Maynard SUPER CLOSE, already beat him another time, and has a win over cusp-contender Melvin Gulliard too. Diaz is just as much in the mix as any other contender resume wise alone. But then you need to factor in his style is very fan friendly and he is a popular fighter. What he "deserves" is also based on what kind of numbers he can do, and he is probably the most marketable contender out there.

Jim Miller has one loss, Benson Henderson, in his last what, ten fights?

Wolfgangsta wrote:

Freak you would bankrupt the UFC. How is it you watch MMA as much as us but can't understand it at all?

So who are the contenders then who are so much more deserving than a winner between those two? Nate is bad ass looking these days, wrecking fulls in true Diaz style fashion. He beat the breaks off Cowboy, who was cruising to his own title shot at the time, thereby taking a lot of momentum with him, and before that, beat ATG Gomi. You can throw the Gomi win away if you want and look at his losses at WW, but last time out at LW he was fighting Maynard SUPER CLOSE, already beat him another time, and has a win over cusp-contender Melvin Gulliard too. Diaz is just as much in the mix as any other contender resume wise alone. But then you need to factor in his style is very fan friendly and he is a popular fighter. What he "deserves" is also based on what kind of numbers he can do, and he is probably the most marketable contender out there.

Jim Miller has one loss, Benson Henderson, in his last what, ten fights?

That's because he's only fought 1 top 10 guy in those fights. Every time he fights a top 10 guy he loses. Diaz is 4-3 in his last 7. If Bendo beats Edgar again then I'd rather see Pettis or Maynard get the next shot.

Gray is coming of back to back title shots.

Does do 1 million buys, does not become tournament.

This is the big show.