UFC130 Predictions

Quinton Jackson vs. Matt Hamill

Ludo: What was supposed to be the co-main event of the night has been promoted after the untimely retraction of both Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard due to injuries. Never the less this should prove a decent fight. Rampage looked less than prepared against Rashad Evans, yet at least in better shape for his fight with Lyoto Machida while Hamill has marked two victories in the meantime following the disqualification "win" over Jon Jones. Many people, including myself, have questioned Jackson's reasons for continuing to fight after he allegedly retired from the sport early last year. As far as the fight goes I give the striking advantage both in technique and power to Rampage. I believe Hamill may hold his own early on, though. Hamill hits deceptively hard even if it's not especially crisp. An edge in wrestling and overall grappling I give to Hamill. He is one of the best wrestlers in the division and it just may be that the blueprint was drawn by Rashad Evans for beating Rampage Jackson. Whether this is something Hamill can duplicate is another story entirely. Much of how this fight plays out will depend on whether or not Hamill can establish the takedown. If he can I can see Hamill holding Rampage down or against the cage long enough to get the nod from the judges. If he can't this is likely to be a bad night for the Hammer. Personally I think Matt can pull off the upset here and neutralize Rampge by leaving him no space to work the boxing game.

Prediction: Matt Hamill by Decision


Wolf :Matt Hamill is not Lyoto Machida. This means two things; when Rampage takes the center of the cage, Hamill won't shy away from exchanges early. And two - Hamill doesn't have near the speed or deceptiveness to his strikes that Machida has. Hamill has good wrestling but not superior in MMA terms to Jackson. Any result other than a brutal and ugly Rampage beatdown should be credited to Rampage's decline from top fighter status more so than anything Hamill offers on its own merit. The longer this fight goes, the more it favors Hamill. If Matt comes in exchanging early, he'll wake up with a flashlight in his eyes. This fight is Rampage's to lose.


Page KO. Round 1.


Bobbitt: It seems most of the discussion towards the main event of the evening has gravitated towards Rampage's mental state heading into the fight. No shocker there, but its also relevant as an out of shape Page gives Hamill the only real chance he has here. Matt's path to victory essentially consists of using his wrestling to smother a fading Jackson down the back half of the fight and trying to escape Vegas with a decision win. The problem lies in what happens before that point. While Hamill has improved his all around striking game in recent years, he's still incredibly stiff and lacks any real head movement and defense. He basically got outstruck by Tito Ortiz for 3 rounds in his last fight but his superior wrestling closed the deal. Rampage's size and strength will prevent anything similar from happening. Hamill has never been a stranger to exchanges, and after fights with Rashad Evans and Lyoto Machida his style should prove a breath of fresh air for Jackson. Too much explosiveness, too much power, and not enough head movement

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson by KO in Round 1


Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson

Ludo: A long anticipated rematch from Grapplers Quest taking place under MMA rules. Top level grappling heavyweights Roy Nelson and Frank Mir will have a chance to lock horns again and then some. Nelson has experienced a slight uprising since winning the tenth season of The Ultimate Fighter. Mir has spent his time in the UFC engaging often enough in exciting fights for better or worse. Only one blemish on his career as far as excitement goes in the form of his last fight against Mirko "Cro Cop" Fillipovic but it is possible to overlook given his several prior performances that made for quality bouts. I can see this fight happening one of two ways: Scenario One has Frank Mir able to stuff Nelsons takedowns while using his superior striking to make Roy pay for getting too close, either rocking him and following up for the submission from the top or to a decision. Scenario two has Nelson able to establish the takedown and ending up on top where he controls Mir to a decision. It's unlikely that Roy will submit Frank but the converse could happen if Mir is on top. From the bottom I'm not so sure Mir can lock something in tight enough to keep Roy from working out of it. It is more likely that Nelson finds a way to get this to the ground and using his wrestling, which is better than Franks, to end up on top enroute to a decision.

Prediction: Roy Nelson by Decision

Wolf: Never pick Mir against power punchers he can't submit or out grapple. His chin isn't reliable. Still, the improvements in Mir's standup technique make this a compelling bout, but I think Nelson knocks Mir out of contention.

Nelson KO.


Bobbitt: I've found myself wavering on this fight over the past few days. Originally, I felt Nelson's power would prove to be the difference in a fight that figures to stay on the feet throughout. Mir doesn't have the wrestling to put Nelson down, and I don't think Roy has much of an interest in trading in his overhand right for Mir's guard. I've been swayed towards the side of technique however, leading me towards taking Frank. Mir's superior all-around standup game will be the difference as he avoids the big shot from Roy and picks his spots to attack. Nelson needs to throw combinations to open up his main weapon, as it was easy to see and predictable vs Dos Santos. The only man in MMA that can get away with constantly loading up a right and still whoop ass is Dan Henderson. Roy better remember that. Mir also appears to have packed on some muscle for this fight which should help him in any clinches against the cage that take place. Frank will find enough openings and exploit Roy just enough to win a close one.

Frank Mir by decision

Rick Story vs. Thiago Alves

Ludo: I find Myself wary about making a prediction on this fight one way or another. Will we see a fight similar to Alves' fight with Howard or similar to his fight with Fitch? We can't be sure how his weight cut will go/is going and we have seen how that effects his performance. Though I will go with what is known for sure. Thiago Alves is a much better and more diverse striker than Rick Story, however Story has the chops to frustrate Alves in more than one area. Story is just as tenacious as Alves and has the grappling to win this fight if he can keep it on the ground. A big factor here is the pace that Story puts on. If he can push the pace he may be able to push Thiago to the edge and pour it on late in the fight. Striking power goes to Alves as does overall technique but Story is no slouch. An edge in grappling I give by a small margin to Story but it is unclear as to whether or not he will be able to take Alves down, that much depends on Alves' weight cut. I see this fight playing out standing early as Thiago has good hips when he's fresh. If Story can survive the initial onslaught with those crippling leg kicks he has his chance to win, but it is unlikely that he can overcome the striking of Thiago to secure the takedown with enough time left to win the fight.

Prediction: Thiago Alves by TKO

Wolf ; Upset Alert. While I like the improvements in Alves diet, I think Story may claim his first real scalp here. Well see how good his hands really are. I should pick the New Thiago, I should, but if I feel like fucking-the-pooch on any fight here, it will be this one.

Story via Split Decision


Bobbitt: Thiago Alves comes into his 2nd fight with Mike Dolce reportedly in great shape. That will be key in this fight and Story comes out blazing and tries to just overwhelm his opponents with the pace he puts on. He isn't a hard guy to find which should lead to Alves letting go of everything in his repertoire, namely those savage and fluent leg kicks. Story claims that Alves is mentally weak and has been broken by wrestlers like Fitch and GSP. Story, while explosive, isn't on that same level as those guys. I've been touting Rick Story for the past couple years and am a big believer, but he's outgunned by a superior striker here. Alves is on his way towards getting rid of endurance issues that plagued him in the past and will land too many clean blows on his overly aggressive opponent.

Thiago Alves by TKO in the 2nd round

Brian Stann vs. Jorge Santiago

Ludo: What better way to welcome Santiago back to the UFC than pitting him against the All American? Likely to be a winner of one of the fight bonuses. These two middleweights are going to go at it and go at it hard. Jorge Santiago is a standout from Japan's Sengoku promotion while Brian Stann has achieved champion status in the late WEC. Since making the move to the UFC Stann has had a rocky road due mostly to his endeavors at Light Heavyweight. Since moving into the Middleweight fold he has found success posting two straight wins, the last of which over Chris Leben. Santiago, meanwhile, has won eleven of his last twelve in which he has defeated the likes of Jeremy Horn, Trevor Prangley, Kazuhiro Nakamura, Kazou Misaki, and avenged the only loss during that stretch against Mamed Khalidov. Both bring explosive striking power, above average ground game's, and a drive to finish fights. In pure striking power Stann gets the nod however overall striking I give the edge to Jorge for his vast array of attacks. On the ground Santiago has better submissions while Stann is the stronger of the two by far. This fight will likely take place all over the place if someone doesn't go down early on. In the end Stanns power will probably prevail. I see them trading strikes before Stann picks up steam and ends Santiago's night with one of those heavy punches.

Prediction: Brian Stann by KO

Wolf : Santiago will get a bad rap after he comes in and loses this one. These are the exact fights new comers and guys returning to the UFC lose badly. Spending time in Japan and then debuting(re-debuting) against a Jackson trained power puncher with ever improving technique is a recipe to get yourself KTFO'd.

Stann via TKO


Miguel Torres vs. Demetrious Johnson

Ludo: Another quality matchup brought about by replacement due to injury. Despite all the hits this card has taken from injury withdrawls this is still a very nice looking card. A promise of action is evident in nearly every fight and this is one of them. Miguel Torres may be alot of things, but being a guy who has made a reputation participating in boring fights is not one of them. Torres claims he has been working hard on his wrestling, though it may not be enough to stop Mighty Mouse this time around. One thing to Torres' advantage is his length and stiff jab. Advantage in striking I give to Miguel hands down. He has very good footwork and Johnson seems to have a knack for being struck more than he rightfully should. Wrestling goes to Demetrious however overall grappling goes to Torres once more. He is dangerous on the ground especially off his back, again using his length to pose problems for anyone willing to take him down. I see this fight consisting mainly of Demetrious working early to see if he can strike with Torres, and finding himself on the end of that long jab. When he realizes he cannot get inside he will resort to the takedown but Miguel may be one of the few fighters in MMA that can steal rounds by being active from the bottom on the ground. Eventually I think Torres will rock Johnson standing after he gets up repeatedly and is taken down repeatedly. Once rocked Torres may give up the takedown and lock up a submission.

Prediction: Miguel Torres by Submission

Wolf : While Torres may not have a classic reputation for being boring, the newly chin-self aware one can be. Mighty Mouse is ten times as fast, and small, compact guys, especially coming from a camp like the Wizard's, are nearly impossible to be submitted by tall lanky guys. Joe Jitsu got inside on Torres with speed and so can Johnson. I think Mighty Mouse hustles the decision here and puts the breaks on a potential super fight with Urijah Faber that looms for Torres if he can find a victory.

Demetrious Johnson by decision.


Kendall Grove vs. Tim Boetsch

Ludo: This is an interesting fight for sure. Boetsch makes a move to the middleweight division after being front side kimura'd by Phil Davis. He meets Kendall "Da Spyder" Grove this time around and will have his hands full there. Grove brings a significant seven inch height advantage with him into this fight. Boetsch will be the more powerful fighter but does he have the footwork to find Groves chin all the way up there? If he can find it he can certainly win this fight but Grove is no glass chinned customer by any means. Standing Boetsch will have his work cut out for him trying to deal with those long jabs and quick knees of Kendall and on the ground he has to worry about the triangle and the sweep at more or less any moment. This will likely be a striking affair early on as the Hawaiian can sprawl well enough and it will be a challenge for the Barbarian to figure out a way to get this fight down to the mat. Both fighters are fairly well rounded, with Boetsch being the more well rounded of the two, however Grove's height adds a certain something to his skills and helps bridge the gap between skill and circumstance. His height and length lend alot to his game that cannot be taught. I see this fight consisting of Boetsch being unable to secure a favorable position in which he's not fending off constant submission attempts on the ground before Grove can get back up where Tim will be losing the striking battle. This is likely to go to Judges decision in favor of "Da Spyder.

Prediction: Kendall Grove by Decision

Wolf : Tim is an entertaining journeyman with solid wrestling. But he lacks the dynamic punching power that causes Grove problems. I could see Tim winning on takedowns, but I think Grove does it dirty in the clinch and takes advantage of the veteran's first weight cut to 185.

Grove TKO

Gleison Tibau vs. Rafaello Oliveira

Ludo: A battle of replacements. This fight was originally scheduled as Cody McKenzie against Bart Palaszewski until Cody was forced to withdraw due to injury. Enter Gleison Tibau. Shortly after the replacement of Cody McKenzie it was announced that Palaszewski also would be withdrawing due to injury. Only hours later it was announced that Rafaello Oliveira would face Gleison Tibau. Gleison comes in fresh off his decision win over 'Batman' Kurt Pellegrino while Oliveira's last stint in the UFC saw him drop two out of three. Since then though he has posted a streak of four consecutive wins. It is likely that Tibau will use his size and wrestling to make a difference in this fight. Oliveira has not proved himself to be on the level to take on someone looming just outside the top ten like Tibau. Gleison will likely be able to take this fight where he wants it without too much trouble one way or another. I see Gleison grinding out a decision win here by top control and ground and pound from top position.

Prediction: Gleison Tibau by Decision

Wolf : Glesion will win a no-gi grappling match.

Glesion UD

Travis Browne vs. Stefan Struve

Ludo: Stefan Struve is being brought along in his career nicely by the Joe Silva. This time around he meets Travis Browne. For once Stefan Struve isn't going to be monstrously taller than his opponent as Browne measures up at 6'7" in height. Despite Browne's last fight being less than memorable if not for being the worst fight on the card I would wager that this fight here will be one you won't want to miss. Struve brings it and Browne seems game for almost anything. With only three decisions in 36 fights between the two of them you can count on this one ending inside the distance. Struve will have the technical striking advantage while Browne has the striking power edge. On the ground Struve is dangerous from anywhere. His height allows him to work from strange angles and employ tactics not often available to a fighter with less length. While Browne didn't impress last time around his fight with James McSweeney can't be overlooked, he has power in his hands. Struve on the other hand has shown a ton of heart and a good chin as well as all around skills in his last two fights against Christian Morecraft and Sean McCorkle. This fight will likely be fairly close through the first and second rounds but after that I fear Browne's cardio may fail him and allow for Stefan to pour it on to a stoppage in the third round.

Prediction: Stefan Struve by TKO

Wolf : Struve and Browne are both the type of fighter that are green enough to make substantial improvements in one camp cycle. I really thought Browne looked much improved and deserved to get the nod against Kongo. Struve has been vulnerable to punchers and has notoriously porous defense. That said, Struve has the higher quality partners and the UFC experience. I think Struve takes it, but this fight isn't the cakewalk some think it is.

Struve TKO

Post your own predictions below or Here!

Slipped your mind obv, but Rampage does have a W over Machida since the Evans fight

Me and Ludo see these fights very differently. Interesting.

Oh nice we're getting some people in on this one. I'll add mine tomorrow after I get out of class

Put it out there - the wolf is back.

Oh shit I totally forgot the Machida fight. I'll have to edit that in. Good eye, Bobbitt

I really really like that poster!

Lets get some more predictions up here guys, ya'll have been slacking. My back is tired from carrying these things:D

Rampage by dec- hamill will put up a good fight but rampage will edge him. also rampage wont fiinish him, he hasnt finished a primed fighter in years and i doubt he'll start with hamill. Not saying he doesnt have power, just saying hamill wont be an easy guy to finish. Also ludo, its cool if u didnt include rampages win over machida for it wasnt a good preformance by him and was just a shitty dec. Still rampage takes this fight

Nelson by dec/tko - now mir has a good chin,much improved striking and a great ground but imo he is too beat up mentally and physically from his last two loses to not break down wen cornered up. Heck he looked old and terrible in his last bout. Mir may outland nelson but roy will get in and rock him to eventually drop and tko him or just beat him up on the ground

Stann by ko- i may not be giving santiago much respect here but i see the same type of ending for him as his last two trips to the octogon against an opponent like stann.

Story by dec - now story may not be on the level of guys like gsp or fitch in the wrestling department but i could so see the dude grinding thiago out for a dec. This of course could all change from a knee by alves but i'll go with story

Mighty mouse by dec- the one fight on the card im not sure of. Everything points to an exciting interesting fight but imo either mo will keep miggy on his back throughout most of the bout or miggy may jab his way through 3rds with his new more conservitive style and win. Just not sure on this one

Grove by sub- will pick his shots in the stand up, be on his back and eventually sub tim

Tibau by dec- like said before, will mostly be a grappling match with the stronger bigger tibau winning

Struve by sub- will wether the storm early, get the better of the stand up in the later rounds and sub travis

Can people stop their whining about Rampage-Machida being a bad decision. It was the right decision

freakzilla wrote:

Can people stop their whining about Rampage-Machida being a bad decision. It was the right decision

Who is whining about it?

throwdownfight1 for 1, read his post. He even goes so far as to ask Ludo to not include it in his post. Also, anytime there is a discussion about the next title shot some people keep saying Rampage didn't really win so he doesn't deserve the shot.

freakzilla wrote:

throwdownfight1 for 1, read his post. He even goes so far as to ask Ludo to not include it in his post. Also, anytime there is a discussion about the next title shot some people keep saying Rampage didn't really win so he doesn't deserve the shot.

I don't know that it's "because he didn't really win" that he doesn't deserve a shot and more that he's 1-1 in the last year with a terrible performance a razor thin performance to follow it up with. One win usually doesn't get you a shot in this division, especially if you look like shit in the fight before it.

I thought I was the only one picking Story? Out of the 10 people that did the GOR I was the only one that was willing to pick Story. Glad to see I'm no longer alone in thinking he pulls off the upset here.

You won't be glad when you see the result of the fight

bobbitt15 wrote:

You won't be glad when you see the result of the fight

Only way I won't be happy is if the fight is boring. I can live with a wrong pick if the fight is exciting. As long as Thiago makes weight and performs I can't hate.

The weight issues are gone. Dolce is a master

Rampage vs Hamill- I think Matt will try and push up on Rampage and wear him down, I think his strategy will be to smother Rampage and wear him down which will make it easier to control Rampage later on. However Rampage will be patient to start the fight and I don't think he blows his load early. I think Rampage will fight smart and wait for his opening. I expect Rampage to do fairly well early on defending the takedowns. I do think Matt gets him down at some point but I think Rampage will eventually find an opening and finish the fight.

winner: Rampage by TKO, 3rd round

Francisco Santos Mir III vs Fatboy- Should be an interesting fight, I think the top 3 fights on this card are all co-main event worthy and make this a solid card. I think Francisco will have some success landing shots early on, which I think eventually will cause Francisco Santos Mir III to become over confident. I think that big overhand right will find a home early in the 2nd round.

winner: Fatboy by TKO, 2nd round

Brian Stann vs Jorge Santiago- I think Jorge will have some success early on in the fight. I think he wins the first round of this fight and builds some confidence. I think Jorge lands more punches early on but nothing that hurts Stann. Eventually I think Stann lands a shot that rocks Jorge and turns the fight in his favor. I expect a very entertaining fight that will result in both fighters receiving a bonus.

winner: Stann by UD in FOTN

I'll do more later.

Don't trust on this card - the chins of Mir and Santiago, and the cardio of Page. However Hamill is such a poor match up for Page that that still won't matter.

Wolfgangsta wrote:

Don't trust on this card - the chins of Mir and Santiago, and the cardio of Page. However Hamill is such a poor match up for Page that that still won't matter.

I agree. I think Mir will eventually eat that big overhand from Fatboy and that will be all she wrote. I think Santiago will get stunned badly in this fight but I don't think the lights will go out. But I think that will be the difference in the fight. Also Page's cardio is a concern but I think Page is able to pace himself and remain patient. Eventually he lands the big one.

OU, it appears me vs you for the pick'em title, I'll say fuck the whole the event and put the title on Alves vs Story, you down?

Also, my custom Halo character would destroy your custom Gears character.

Wish I could post a pick..

Still salty I didn't get an immediate rematch with LA

LA wrote:

OU, it appears me vs you for the pick'em title, I'll say fuck the whole the event and put the title on Alves vs Story, you down?

Also, my custom Halo character would destroy your custom Gears character.

Wish I could post a pick..

No such thing as a custom Gears character, that I'm aware of anyways.

Also, I'm picking Story but it's far from a lock. Plenty of good fights on this very solid card, it would be a shame to waste such a deep card.

Hey just throwing it out there...

Thought they added customizing online characters for Gears 3, I'm out of the game since 2.

LA wrote:

Hey just throwing it out there...

Thought they added customizing online characters for Gears 3, I'm out of the game since 2.

They might on the game itself(didn't on beta), you can customize the skins on the guns, that's about it. They added some new characters though.

I'm really digging this whole card, going to be some tough fights.