Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida

Quite possibly the single best year for any fighter in the history of the sport to date. Jon Jones has a chance to do something that rivals and in my opinion tops Shogun's legendary run in 2005 winning the PRIDE Grand Prix. If Jones can beat Machida he'll have won four fights this year, two of which over surefire hall of fame fighters in Rampage Jackson and Shogun Rua, as well as over a possible hall of fame fighter in Lyoto Machida. Not only that, but he'll be the first UFC Light Heavyweight champion to successfully defend his title two times since Chuck Liddell in 2006. However thats easier said than done. Lyoto Machida has proven extremely hard to gameplan against because of his unique mix of high level karate mixed with sumo and brazilian jiu jitsu black belts. He presents a challenge like no other to the current champion, who has shown unorthodox striking as well. Jon Jones has yet to truly be beaten in his mixed martial arts career. Had it not been for some 12 to 6 elbows on Matt Hammill he would be, and still is considered by virtually everyone in the community, undefeated. His high level wrestling combined with his unorthodox striking style and freakishly long limbs as well as a ton of athleticism make him a handful even now for anyone in the sport.

I'm really not sure where to put alot of these advantages here. Both these guys have shown alot of ability to be unorthodox, strong grapplers, and have more or less dominated every fight they have been in with the exception of Machida's fights with Shogun and Rampage, both of whom Jones beat decisively this year alone. If I had to choose it would be as follows: Striking I give the technique advantage to Machida simply because he leaves less openings in his strikes, however nobody has been able to capitalize on Jones' mistakes yet. Striking power I have to give to Jones because of his explosiveness and his willingness to turn it up when he feels he has his opponent hurt. Wrestling I have to give to Jones because we have seen him stuff a high level wrestler who is in his physical prime and comitted to the takedown, something we have not yet seen with Machida. However it must be noted Lyoto has stuffed 81% of the takedowns attempted on him in his career. Overall grappling I give to Machida due to his extensive standing and ground grappling training and submissions. All that said I think Jones wins this fight pressuring Machida, making Lyoto commit first and initiate so Jones can figure things out early on and go from there. Eventually though I think he goes for the takedown and works the ground and pound until either the ref pulls him off Lyoto, or until a submission presents itself for the win.

Prediction: Jon Jones by (T)KO


Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

A rematch that could answer all the questions lingering from the first time these two locked hornes back at UFC 92. Frank Mir and Antonio Rodrigo 'Minotauro' Nogueira square off for the second time when the first encounter saw Minotauro finished for the first time in his career. Three years later and people are still questioning whether Minotauro has anything left. But despite the year and a half layoff and surgeries he came back in Brazil to knock Brendan Schaub out in a fight I gave him almost no chance to win, as did many others. Frank Mir has posted two straight wins but has had less than stellar performances in those fights. His lackluster fight with Cro Cop barring the knee that finished the Croatian in the third round and his fight with Roy Nelson in which he couldn't finish a man with walking pneumonia have become causes for concern to some. I happen to think he had way too much respect for Cro Cop, and Nelson is about as hard to finish as they come in the heavyweight division. He absorbed more strikes from Dos Santos than all of JDS' previous UFC opponents combined. Like last time around the usual advantages still exist. Striking technique goes to Mir who uses a much wider array of strikes, while power is a bit of a wash with a slight edge going to Mir. On the ground it's essentially a toss up since both men are such high level jiu jitsu and submission specialists. This is going to come down to who lands the big shot first, and I just think Minotauro is limited by his repertoire. I don't think he finishes Minotauro again necessarily, but I think he takes this fight again.

Prediction: Frank Mir by Decision


Tito Ortiz vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

For whatever reason it seems the UFC has seen fit to give Antonio Rogerio 'Minotoro' Nogueira a steady diet of wrestlers during his stint in the promotion. Of his four UFC opponents to date three have been wrestling based fighters, Tito now makes his fourth straight wrestler opponent. Although they have given him wrestler after wrestler it would seem Tito is going to recieve his sixth loss in his last nine fights. Minotoro showed great takedown defense against Phil Davis in the first round up until Davis changed his shot to a single leg. I just don't think Ortiz has the spring in his step anymore to get the job done, and even if he can there's something to be said for having a Nogueira on the ground. Grappling is split into two categories, one being wrestling and the other being brazilian jiu jitsu. Obviously Tito has the wrestling while Minotoro enjoys the jiu jitsu edge. It can also be noted that Tito Ortiz has been submitted only once in his entire mixed martial arts career. He is extremely crafty on the ground which may make it difficult for even a Nogueira to submit him. Striking in both power and technique is a clear advantage for the Brazilian. Unfortunately for Tito I just don't think he can get this fight where he needs to in order to get the win. Most likely he'll be on his bicycle for most of the fight until Nogueira knocks him down or until the final bell rings.

Prediction: Antonio Rogerio Minotoro Nogueira by Decision


Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung Jung

Possibly the most action packed matchup of the night sees Mark Hominick against the Korean Zombie Chan Sung Jung. Hominick is fresh off his decision loss to Jose Aldo for the featherweight title while Jung avenged his loss to Leonard Garcia with a Twister that would have made Eddie Bravo proud. Both have shown quite a chin in their careers, and both like to stand up and knock guys out. That said, under normal circumstances this isn't an especially good matchup for Jung. Mark Hominick is quite simply a better striker than he is, but these aren't normal circumstances. With the recent passing of Shawn Thompkins we will either see a less than prepared Hominick, or an extremely fired up Hominick. Regardless I give a technical striking edge to Hominick, and the power striking may be a slight edge for Mark as well but it could just as easily be a wash. Grappling is where the advantage is for Jung, however we haven't seen enough of his take downs to accurately guage whether he can get it there. Ultimately I see Hominick winning this vis decision unless he comes out fired up, in which case he knocks the korean out.

Prediction: Mark Hominick by Decision.