Nick Diaz vs Carlos Condit

On paper this looks like an early candidate for fight of the year. Simply put these two bring it every fight. A couple of well rounded fighters who know how to finish will be fighting for the interim welterweight title in GSP's absence due to injury. In his last fight Nick Diaz did to BJ Penn's face what no other fighter in three weight classes has ever been able to do before. Carlos Condit made short work of his last opponent, Dong Hyun Kim, when he knocked the Korean out with a flying knee over the summer. These two are the definition of killer instinct. In the 53 combined victories to their names they have 47 finishes between them. Be it by knockout, referee stoppage, or submission, these two apparently love to make things easy on the judges. While the striking styles differ they both get results.

When it comes to striking between these guys it's got to come down to what you look for in a striker. If you absolutely have to end the other guy with one punch or kick or knee then Carlos is your guy. If you want to spend a while punishing him with a horrendous amount of strikes that leave him wondering why he ever agreed to get in the cage to begin with then Nick is the way to go. Purely from a power striking standpoint I give the edge to Carlos, but it has become very clear that Nick has power. When it comes to overall technique I'm calling it a wash. The reasoning behind that is while Carlos uses a wider array of striking attacks than Nick typically does, Diaz has shown that his methods are very effective. On the ground things are just as even really. Carlos has shown the ability to work on the ground with the best of them, even from bottom position, while Nick has some of the best jiu jitsu in the sport today. Both in submissions and overall technique I have to give Diaz the edge on the ground, mostly because I can't visualize a scenario where Condit gets the better of him on the ground. That isn't to say Carlos can't hold his own, I just don't think he'll have anything Nick hasn't seen before or can't deal with.

I see this fight being quite possibly the closest fight since Shogun/Henderson where barring a finish, which is unlikely with how durable and tough both guys are, there will be a split between fans as to who "really" won the fight. Personally it's hard to bet against Nick Diaz here. I just think his smothering and constant pressure style will allow him to overwhelm Condit at times, and win rounds for Nick.

Prediction: Nick Diaz by Decision


Fabricio Werdum vs Roy Nelson

There is a rumor out there that someone close to Werdum claims he is battling a knee injury and has not been training his muay thai or anything else for that matter 100%. I don't know how much to believe that without a name attached to it but I will say that if that is the case Werdume will have a very hard time getting going here. As far as it goes with the assumption Werdum is as healthy as always. Standing this, like most any other fight, leaves Nelson at a bit of a disadvantage when it comes to technique. For someone who has been in the game as long and achieved the kind of success that Roy Nelson has he really only has that overhand right to his name. Werdum has developed some decent striking over the years to compliment his world class ground game. Obviously striking power is Nelsons only standing edge with that overhand right. On the ground there isn't any area that Nelson has a distinctive edge over Werdum, which is to be expected. However I will say that if Nelson gets on top I think he could survive without getting submitted by Werdum. I think this fight plays out with alot of failed takedowns and a pair of frustrated grapplers, but Nelson will find a way to corner Werdum and land a few of those overhand rights, which he has gotten proficient at doing.

Prediction: Roy Nelson by (T)KO


Josh Koscheck vs Mike Pierce

This is a fairly perplexing fight for Me to be honest. Not so much in how to break it down but more in why it was made to begin with. Koscheck is one fight removed from his title shot at the end of 2010. I imagine Josh just wants to stay active just in case GSP isn't quite ever the same in light of his knee injury. Standing I give both the striking technique and striking power advantages to Koscheck, but Pierce has shown effectiveness in close quarters, and thats probably where he'll be looking to get things. While both guys are wrestlers it's clear who the better wrestler is, or should be. Josh Koscheck should have an edge both in wrestling and overall grappling, but Pierce has shown outstanding defensive wrestling, at least early on. Even with the deck stacked against him Pierce is a very tough competitor. He may be outmatched but he will be competitive. I see this fight playing out alot like Pierce's fight with Johny Hendricks. Mike will get his shots in here and there but overall he'll lose most of the exchanges both striking and grappling enroute to a decision loss.

Prediction: Josh Koscheck by Decision


Scott Jorgensen vs Renan Barao

Since losing to Dominick Cruz at the end of 2010 Scott Jorgensen has put together two impressive performances against Ken Stone and Jeff Curran. Renan Barao has been busy of late doing what Nova Uniao fighters do, most noteably he ended Brad Pickett in less than one round with punches and a choke. While this is more the kind of fight I would have liked to see Jorgensen in without the wasted title shot before he was ready for one, I don't much like his chances here. He still has the wrestling pedigree but Barao has shown a propensity for just disregarding takedowns with a great jiu jitsu game and a ferocious standing attack. Standing I see an advantage all around for Barao, but Jorgensen has power behind his hands. On the ground obviously wrestling is Jorgensen's game while jiu jitsu is going to be an area of specialty for Barao. I just think Barao is too hot right now to be slowed by Jorgensen. At some point Scott is going to be forced to deal with Renan somewhere in this fight and I don't know that he can do that whether standing or on the ground. Standing he's likely to get dropped and finished, or at the very least end up on the bottom and in a terrible position.

Prediction: Renan Barao by Submission