Melvin Guillard vs. Evan Dunham Ludo:
A fight between a fast rising star and an established veteran with a proven track record for exciting fights. Guillard is on a fairly hot win streak of late where Dunham dropped a controversial decision to Sean Sherk. As far as who takes the fight it's not exactly a narrow margin here. Evan Dunham represents the exact kind of fighter/skillset that has always given Melvin Guillard problems throughout his career. He is a long, rangey fighter who has very slick submissions. Overall the only area I give Guillard the edge is in footwork and technical striking. Wrestling is closer to even while a slight edge may go to Dunham, and the overall grappling goes to Dunham for sure. I see Guillard winning this fight only by landing a heavy shot and finishing Dunham TKO style, or edging him out in a decision by stuffing takedowns and playing this out similar to the way he fought Jeremy Stephens. Dunham can win by top control decision, submission, using a stiff jab to keep Guillard on the outside.
Prediction: Evan Dunham by Submission
; As his last fight demonstrated, Melvin's still in a process of retooling and reinventing himself under Greg Jackson. With his physical tools, he is the type of fighter who could make dramatic improvements overnight. Look at the improvements in other lightweights such as Stevenson, and Guida, who have half the physical gifts of Guillard. That said, his mental lapses are well publicized and Evan Dunham has soul-destroyer talent. Melvin is dangerous and strong, but I think this will be another brick in the wall Evan Dunham is climbing toward the title.
Dunham by submission. Bobbitt:
This is a tough fight for me to call. It seems like it should be the next step on Dunham's rise to the top of the division, but I have a feeling Melvin pulls the relatively small upset here. His well-documented time with Jackson has started to mature him as a fighter and I believe him when he says that the improved training partners have given him more composure on the ground at fending of submissions (which is Dunham's greatest chance at winning this fight in my opinion). I see Melvin working a pick and pop style with his handspeed controlling the standup and if/when the fight hits the deck, he'll be able to survive.
Guillard by SD Bird
- I believe that Guillard will obviously want to remain standing and work the clinch. Dunham on the other hand will hope to take Melvin down and keep him on his back for most of the 15 minutes in the fight. I am not expecting a very fun fight here because I think Dunham's wrestling will prevail and Melvin will find himself stuck on the ground while losing a unanimous decision to Dunham.
- It's a good, well matched fight. Could go either way. Melvin looks more and more like a winning fighter the past few fights and Dunham, despite an official loss in his last fight, is movin an a similar direction. Who manages to do what will be the deciding factor. Does Melvin out speed and strike, keep it up and dictate a pace that suits his qualities, or does Dunham put the fight in a place that best suits his offensive abilities? I think Evan gets this down a few times in the fight and controls and attacks to a point that earns him a tough victory. Might not be an exciting fight, but it will be a tough war.
Dunham UD 29-28Matt Mitrione vs. Tim HagueLudo:
Mitriones biggest test to date will be dealing with the takedowns and clinchwork of Tim Hague. The Thrashing Machine will likely look to strike for a short while to establish his own power before he begins trying to take Mitrone down and pound him out. Mitrione's best weapon here is going to be the leg kick. As anyone who comes out of Duke Roufus' camp he is well versed in kicking as we have seen before. He is going to have to dig the kick into Hague's thigh so as to weaken the shoot and clinching ability. Depending upon how much success Hague actually has with the takedown he can win or lose this fight. Mitrione has shown an ability to hold his own on the ground at least to the point that he hasn't been smashed out easily. Oddly enough the football background of Mitrione likely helps him adapt to clinching situations, which may force Hague to rely on takedowns in order to win.
Prediction: Matt Mitrione by KO
; Tim isn't as bad as his 1-3 record in the UFC seems to suggest, but Meathead is going to be a force in the UFC. His athleticism and explosive power is belied by his average appearance. Tim will have to try get this fight to the ground and seek that choke quickly, because he does not need to get into a slugfest with anyone named Meathead. The question is, can he do this? Doubtful. Mitrione is going to blast Hague out with grown man punches.
Meat via KO.Bobbitt:
Mitrione may make this fight entertaining enough that Hague lives to see another day, but that's about all he has going for him coming into this. Matt continues to show off improved striking en route to a relatively easy decision win.
Mitrione by UDBird
- Foot, meet Tim Hague's head, Mittrione is going to score a head kick KO and Im calling it!!!!
Mittrione KO Head KickGDPofDRC
- Mittrione has quickly turned into my favorite ex-NFL player turned MMA fighter in the biz. The guy comes to fight and could not be happier about it. Hard not to like that. Hague brings some tools and threats into this, if they will be a serious concern to Matt, I don't know. I pick Matt, but this could be a good barometer for how far along he really is depending on how he can win if he does. I think he can batter him around enough and set up a groun assault for a stoppage.
Mittrione - R2 TKO 3:43Mark Hominick vs. George RoopLudo:
This fight could potentially mean a title shot for Mark Hominick. Anyone else who might possibly be in line ahead of him have lost recently which really turns the pressure on. As it stands George Roop has experienced a small bit of fame after killing the korean zombie in his last outing. However I see Roop having issues really finding his rythim against Hominick. This will likely be primarily a standup affair and unfortunately for Roop, Hominick has the advantage both in power and technical skill.
Prediction: Mark Hominick by DecisionWolf;
Roop's striking looked abysmal at 135 against Eddie Wineland, a fighter with similar technical acumen in terms of movement and footwork. I think he took that spanking to heart and has made an effort to change his game. At a better weight, he looked much improved against the stalking style of the Zombie. How much of that was the Zombie style inflating Roop's performance and how much of that is a serious upgrade is debatable. What isn't debatable is Hominick should still carry an advantage in a big way.
Hominick via decision. Bobbitt:
This is an interesting fight with a few solid subplots working for it. Hominick has a title shot awaiting him with a win, but to do so must go through his training partner, and the always confident George Roop. This is my personal favorite to win FOTN, with Hominick's technical skill doing enough to earn him the win in what should be a fight with plenty of exciting moments in the standup. Roop will find out the hard way that Hominick doesn't move around the cage like a zombie that enjoys getting kicked in the head.
Hominick by UDBird
- Roops game plan will more than likely revolve around him winning the stand-up against Hominick. I dont see that happening.
- This could be a short but exciting fight. Both of these guys are gonna wanna win via KO and both have shown they can. I think Mark gets to the finish first though, in devastating fashion.
Hominick - R1 KO 2:34Patrick Barry vs. Joey BeltranLudo:
Brawler vs Striker. Fresh off his submission loss to Mirko 'Cro Cop' Filipovic Pat Barry intends to get back on the winning path by dispatching the Mexicutioner. Recent interviews have painted Barry as a man who both doesn't want to fight as well as a fighter who appears hesitant to strike with the right hand he broke against Cro Cop. He states in that interview that he has not thrown the right hand anywhere near full strength even once since returning to training. Owning the striking edge clearly is Pat Barry, even without the right hand. Wrestling goes to Joey Beltran, as does overall grappling seeing as Barry is beyond terrible off his back. One of four likely scenarios is how I see this fight going. Scenario one: Pat Barry shuts Joey Beltran down hard and fast with strikes. Scenario two: Joey Beltran survives the early onslaught long enough to take Barry down, where he submits him. Scenario three: Joey Beltran survives the early striking long enough to take Barry down and grinds out a top control decision. Scenario four: Pat Barry stuffs the Mexicutioner's shots and outstrikes him enroute to a decision.
Prediction: Joey Beltran by DecisionWolf;
it's hard to say if Barry is being truthful with his statements or is trying to bait Beltran into a slugfest. I tend to think the latter, and I believe he is good enough to keep from being laid on or finished by Beltran.
Barry via KO. Bobbitt:
Good things have been written about the chin of Beltran after absorbing some shots from Mitrione and gaining a reputation as a heavyweight slugger. He's way out of his league in this one though. I don't see Beltran have the tools to win a decision via top control and suspect that this stays on the feet for as long as it lasts. Anything short of Barry breaking his power hand and lead leg will leave the Mexicutioner out in the cold on this one.
Barry via TKOBird
- Man this fights got "swing fight" written all over it. I can't wait to see it, I expect a fun stand up battle with wild scrambles that ultimately lead to a Pat Berry victory.
Pat Berry KOGDPofDRC
- Another match I expect to be short and brutal. Berry isn't going to do anything but kick box. I tend to think Joey is gonna have the same gameplan; stand and bang. If that plays out, Berry is at an advantage, BUT! I got a feeling Joey is gonna eat some big shots then give'em right back. When these guys gas late in the first and things get really sloppy, Joey is gonna begin to dictate. He will upset Berry, and do it on the feet.
Beltran - R2 TKO 3:12Cole Miller vs. Matt WimanLudo:
An interesting matchup between two alumni of season five of The Ultimate Fighter. Wiman has proven a very durable fighter yet not unskilled in his own right. Miller clearly owns the grappling edge here and will likely look to make this a ground fight. Wiman is about as tough as they come though. He is no slouch on the ground and a real firecracker to fight. Between them both they have only three losses by way of Knockout which should make for quite the barn burner. I believe this fight will be a back and forth type spectacle in which Miller eventually pulls away late on the score cards.
Prediction: Cole Miller by Decision
; This has fight of the night plastered all over it. Miller has stepped his boxing game up in recent times and I think this may prove to be the difference. I see Cole Miller as still some what of a prospect with more upside than Wiman and I expect him to engage Wiman in such a way to attempt to permanently challenge the "Handsome" Moniker. I think Miller looks for the finish and he either finds it or finds himself giving the fight away.
Miller via SubmissionBobbitt:
Solid scrap between a guy on the verge of really making a name for himself and an underappreciated all-around fighter. Miller already has fans anticipating a fight with Cerrone in the next few months but he would be wise to not take his eyes off what's in front of him here. Look for this fight to take place in all areas with Miller getting the better of Wiman in an entertaining affair.
Miller via UDGDPofDRC
- Kind of a rite of passage fight here, which guy am I gonna take the most cereal after tonight and who will I be saying "what was that guys name?" about in 4 months. I tend to think Miller. He's good at gettin in where he fits in with the subs.
Miller - R2 Sub 4:01DaMarques Johnson vs. Michael GuymonLudo:
Two men desperately in need of a win here. The outcome of this fight is more than likely to determine which one of these fighters still has a job in the UFC come monday. Never the less it's a fairly close fight style wise. Guymon owns an edge in submissions and wrestling while Johnson is the better striker.
Prediction: Guymon by DecisionWolf;
Neither of these fighters belongs in the UFC. If Johnson can keep it standing he can edge it out. This is a pickem fight.
Johnson via TKO. Bobbitt:
Likely loser leaves town fight. Guymon owns the grappling edge but this just seems like a fight where something crazy might happen. To me, that is Johnson catching Guymon in a triangle from the bottom and subbing him as has happened in a few previous losses.
Johnson via subGDPofDRC
- Heymon, it Guymon. I like both of these dudes but they are both in danger of being washed out of the UFC given the depth that surrounds them. As as been said, win or go home.
Guymon - SD 30-27, 27-30, 29-28Yves Edwards vs. Cody McKenzieLudo:
The crafty veteran against the one trick pony. I don't mean to make it out as though Cody McKenzie is one dimmensional but his entire game revolves around the "McKenzietine" or more correctly known as a prayer choke. Yves Edwards may be entering the twilight of his career but he is still a fairly well rounded fighter. Cody McKenzie has shown us that striking beyond using his reaching jab is not his strong suit. We also know that a fighter with above average grappling defense can neutralize his gameplan and wear him down. Edwards has a clear edge in striking and overall grappling so long as he can keep his neck out of danger. Cody appears to have cardio issues especially in a fight in which he's overmatched skill wise. If this fight finds it's way to the third round McKenzie could be in trouble.
Prediction: Yves Edwards by TKOWolf;
Edwards should own advantages across the board in all things except fighting spirit. He is old and fights old and is just the type of fighter who could fall into a choke he otherwise shouldn't. Cody fights well above his potential but regardless of his heart, and the lack of urgency from Yves, I just don't see him getting past the veteran. I think Yves could turn Cody into an old school highlight. That said, it wouldn't be a major shock to see Yves sitting on his knees with dejection smeared across his face as Cody runs around the cage celebrating a submission he had no business getting.
Edwards via TKOBobbitt:
Awesome fight here. I'm so intrigued to watch McKenzie just try to relentlessly lock in that guillotine against someone who's been around the game as long as Yves. That in itself will be great but eventually Yves will dust the Alaskan off via much superior standup
Edwards via TKOBird
- Cody McKenzie is in over his head IMO, Yves Edwards doesn't like to shoot or go to the ground, McKenzie has showed rudimentary stand up skills against Nam Phan, I expect the master of the McKenzitiene to be introduced to Thug Jiutsu by the amster and creater.
Yves Edwards KO 2nd round.GDPofDRC
- Edwards is a KO Machine!!!!! or not, I see him trying to hard and getting nothing. McKenzie is not great but also underrated. He doesn't have tools to win this fight, he has a tool, but I can see Edwards falling into the trap of it before it's over.
McKinzie - R3 Guillotine 4:09 Mike Thomas Brown vs. Rani YahyaLudo:
A late replacement could be the difference between a win and a loss for Yahya here. Mike Brown is all wrong for Rani in the regards that the one dimmensional jiu jitsu ace will find it hard to get past the heavy handed striking and sprawling abilities of Brown. While Yahya has had no qualms with pulling guard in order to bring opponents down in the past that could be a terrible idea. While two of Browns four submission losses have come by triangle choke he does not have many holes in his top control game. Delivering brutal ground and pound is what Mike Brown lives for. With a vast advantage striking wise I expect Brown to do his best to sprawl and brawl against Yahya.
Prediction: Mike Brown by TKO
Brown always seems to fight better off a loss with his career dangling in front of him, and being on short notice has never bothered him before. Roni Yahya couldn't ask for a worst match up. Brown will smash him.
Brown via KO. Bobbitt:
Must win for fight for Brown who should be able to use a well-rounded game to fend off Yahya's BJJ attack. I don't sense him getting the finish though and am still unsure what to think going forward.
Brown via UDBird
- I have lost confidence in Brown and am going to go with Yahya simply because I think Brown is on his way out the door.
- You can't keep a good Mike Brown down. I got Mike coming back and working out a win tonight. He's too deep in it right now to lose again.
Brown - UD 30-27