Anyone taking Rashad over Shogun...

I know it's early, but I'm going to go on a limb and say Rashad wins. I really think MMA is a lot like Rock, Paper, Scissors, and I could see Rashad beating Shogun, where Machida could not, yet Machida I think beats Rashad 9 out of 10 times. Here's why...

I think this fight will look a lot like Mo vs. Mousasi. Shogun has never had good takedown defense, but his BJJ has always been good enough to keep him safe on his back. Against a great wrestler who also holds a black belt in BJJ in Rashad, I think Shogun could be in a lot of trouble. Obviously Rashad is destroyed on the feet, but I doubt he keeps it there and grinds away at SHogun on the fence or the ground, for five rounds or maybe a finish a late finish.

simply put, NO

Im in the no camp as well. Mo's wrestling was dominant vs Gegard. Shad's is never dominant. Also Shogun is in his prime, gegard is still at the beginning of his career.
Much more likely for a young guy to be susceptible to the takedowns. AND Mo was the bigger stronger fighter vs Gegard, Rua will have those advantages here.

Even this far out Im very confident in picking Shogun.

Well you def can't count Rashad out. I'm hoping Shogun either catches him on a takedown attempt or keeps him away staying aggressive from outside. Another thing we have to take into account is the fact that Shogun will threaten with subs from bottom where other blackbelts use thier bjj for defense only from the bottom position.

Smart money is on Shogun.

don't forget the poor chin on shads head, he gets tagged with a hook from shogun its lights out

Shogun's blackbelt in BJJ is real. Rashad's isn't. Even if Rashad humped his leg for the beginning of the fight he would start to fade like he has in the 3rd round of his last couple fights and he'll get finished

Didn't Renzo Gracie validate Rashad's black belt?

Rashad has been KO'd once, after a barrage by Machida -- how does that mean he has a weak chin?

I know the smart money is on Shogun, but I'm going on a limb. I believe everyone on here [me included] was convinced that Machida would kill Shogun in their first match too. I just can't get carried away with hype when every fight is different and brings different styles. In SHogun/Rashad, I see a guy with very little in the way of takedown defense against a guy that will look to wrestle from start to finish.

boomer sooner wrote:

Didn't Renzo Gracie validate Rashad's black belt?

Rashad has been KO'd once, after a barrage by Machida -- how does that mean he has a weak chin?

I know the smart money is on Shogun, but I'm going on a limb. I believe everyone on here [me included] was convinced that Machida would kill Shogun in their first match too. I just can't get carried away with hype when every fight is different and brings different styles. In SHogun/Rashad, I see a guy with very little in the way of takedown defense against a guy that will look to wrestle from start to finish.

He got rocked in both his last fights, just that both his opponents couldn't do anything about it cuz they were gassed

Well against Quinton he recovered and swept Rampage, plus Rampage rocks every person he fights at some point.

Chuck used to get rocked every fight during his prime, but he was known for a granite chin. Rampage got rocked against Evans and he has a great chin. If this is the logic, then I'm not sure who does have a great chin.

I keep hearing Rashad has a weak chin but being knocked out by Machida and rocked by Thiago and Rampage isn't anything to be ashamed about.

Ali_1748 wrote:

I keep hearing Rashad has a weak chin but being knocked out by Machida and rocked by Thiago and Rampage isn't anything to be ashamed about.

Yeah but that was 3 fights in a row being rocked. It alteast makes you raise the question.

OUSOONERSOU wrote:

Ali_1748 wrote:

I keep hearing Rashad has a weak chin but being knocked out by Machida and rocked by Thiago and Rampage isn't anything to be ashamed about.

Yeah but that was 3 fights in a row being rocked. It alteast makes you raise the question.

All three of those opponents have heavy hands. I didn't see Rashad getting rocked by Bisping,Ortiz or Forrest.

Boom I see the matchup issues you're bringing up, but here are my concerns, and they're similar to what others have already said in this thread.

Rashad has a very debatable chin. Since his loss to Machida, a fight where everything Machida threw at him hurt him, he has been rather easily hurt late in both fights. A lunging hook from a gassed Thiago Silva and running into a gassed Rampages' knee both left him wobbled for a significant amount of time. The only reason Rashad was able to survive is because both of his advisarys were so gassed they couldn't realize how wobbly Rashad was. Credit Rashad for being able to wear out his bigger opponents, but I think the last three fights highlight a real durability issue with Evans. He looked as if he had a good chin in the past, but usually guys with that head and neck shape have less renowned chins.

Also, while Shogun may seem to have weak takedown defense because Coleman, Machida and Liddell all scored takedowns, I have seem him do well for himself offensively in wrestling and his scrambles off his back are very good. If Thiago could get back to his feet easily, Shogun should be able to as well. Mo was able to hold Gegard down, due to being the stronger fighter with a real pedigree in wrestling. Rashad will be at a significant size and strength disadvantage, and while I think his wrestling is improving over where it used to be, I can't see him developing the required skill and a top control to hold Shogun down.

Also, Shogun will bring to the fight some very deadly anti-takedown artillery in the form of knees. Evans will have to set his takedowns up masterfully to avoid a knee timed against the incoming shot. Think Jose Aldo and Alexander Schlemenko. Rashad may be able to score takedowns, but I don't think he'd be able to keep Shogun there. If he tries to posture up Shogun will escape. Unless he lay and prays he has no shot. Can he do that for five rounds and avoid Shogun's hands, feet and knees for that long?

Doubtful.

Furthermore, he will lose his speed and athletic advantages he held over Rampage. Shogun is flat out faster.


Rashad has his work cut out for him. Shogun should be the significant favorite.

Ali fine, I'll by that, but Shogun hits as hard as any of those guys save maybe Rampage, and Page didn't even land anything clean.

He is easily rocked by hard hitting fighters. Shogun is a hard hitting fighter. Shogun will easily rock Rashad.

Machida has never been known for his power, granted he scored two vicious KOs in a row, but the truth remains he has always had the reputation for a guy with less than stellar KO punching ability, Thiago Silva threw an off balance lunching hook when he was gassed, and Rampage rocked him with a knee that he barely seemed to run into.

Rashad's chin is a question.

Hell fucking no. Rashad relies on his speed to strike and set up his double. The thing is Shogun is the faster fighter. Shogun's got one of the best chins in the sport, he would crush Evans to the legs, and any time Evans attempted to take him down, Shogun could sweep him within 20 seconds if Rashad decided to posture up. Add the fact that any fighter Evans has ever faced with power in their hands has rocked him or in Machida's case knocked him out he is not a smart bet at all.

I don't think Evans can last 5 rds with Shogun. He's never even entered the 4th rd before and I don't think he can stop Shogun either.

freakzilla316ftw wrote:

I don't think Evans can last 5 rds with Shogun. He's never even entered the 4th rd before and I don't think he can stop Shogun either.

good point, a guy who has looked tired in the 3rd round of his last couple is scheduled to go 5. should def be factored in.

captain organic wrote:

freakzilla316ftw wrote:

I don't think Evans can last 5 rds with Shogun. He's never even entered the 4th rd before and I don't think he can stop Shogun either.

good point, a guy who has looked tired in the 3rd round of his last couple is scheduled to go 5. should def be factored in.

Well Shogun didn't exactly show a good gas tank before he met Machida in that 1st 5 rounder. Just throwing that out there.

The knees will be a definite problem for Rashad's takedowns, but those weren't factors against Arona or Coleman, who Rashad is far quicker than.

I just watched Bisping/Evans this past week and Rashad looked terrible. I could hardly believe that was the same guy that beat Quinton. It is a testament to Rashad improving every time we see him. Rashad was not tired in round three against Quinton and I think he will waste even less energy dragging Shogun to the mat for three rounds, who is nowhere near as strong or as big as Rampage, which could carry him into the fourth or fifth.

And wasn't it a combination from Thiago that rocked Rashad? I thought I remember it being two or three shots in a row -- that's not a question of chin, but rather defense.

OUSOONERSOU wrote:

captain organic wrote:

freakzilla316ftw wrote:

I don't think Evans can last 5 rds with Shogun. He's never even entered the 4th rd before and I don't think he can stop Shogun either.

good point, a guy who has looked tired in the 3rd round of his last couple is scheduled to go 5. should def be factored in.

Well Shogun didn't exactly show a good gas tank before he met Machida in that 1st 5 rounder. Just throwing that out there.

but he did show a good gas tank vs machida in that 5 rounder which is the most recent. The Coleman fight may be linked to injury/ring rust, not sure of a reason to attach to forrest aside from being young and not entirely focused. But could there be a bit of a title victory hangover here for shogun? Is there a let down after being so prepared for the Machida rematch?

captain organic wrote:

OUSOONERSOU wrote:

captain organic wrote:

freakzilla316ftw wrote:

I don't think Evans can last 5 rds with Shogun. He's never even entered the 4th rd before and I don't think he can stop Shogun either.

good point, a guy who has looked tired in the 3rd round of his last couple is scheduled to go 5. should def be factored in.

Well Shogun didn't exactly show a good gas tank before he met Machida in that 1st 5 rounder. Just throwing that out there.

but he did show a good gas tank vs machida in that 5 rounder which is the most recent. The Coleman fight may be linked to injury/ring rust, not sure of a reason to attach to forrest aside from being young and not entirely focused. But could there be a bit of a title victory hangover here for shogun? Is there a let down after being so prepared for the Machida rematch?

I was just throwing out there that we could question Shogun's cardio BEFORE the Machida first fight. But he has improved and answered that question. Rashad knowing he is fighting a 5 rounder should be better prepared.

boomer sooner wrote:

The knees will be a definite problem for Rashad's takedowns, but those weren't factors against Arona or Coleman, who Rashad is far quicker than.

I just watched Bisping/Evans this past week and Rashad looked terrible. I could hardly believe that was the same guy that beat Quinton. It is a testament to Rashad improving every time we see him. Rashad was not tired in round three against Quinton and I think he will waste even less energy dragging Shogun to the mat for three rounds, who is nowhere near as strong or as big as Rampage, which could carry him into the fourth or fifth.

And wasn't it a combination from Thiago that rocked Rashad? I thought I remember it being two or three shots in a row -- that's not a question of chin, but rather defense.

The same could def be said about the Machida fight, Evans thought his best defense was to laugh and smirk his way through punches to the face. There is also the getting KO'd 4 the first time in his career carryover effect. Some cobwebs that need to be worked out in the ring. By surviving the Thiago and Page flurries, maybe he begins to find it easier to survive similar situations in the future.

THe point is worth noting, but SHogun is a different man since Forrest and Coleman. He's focused now on greatness. I believe the same for Evans. This will not be the same guy that gassed against Thiago or Bisping.

My guess is neither one of these guys will show up with a shallow gas tank. We will see the best Rashad ever and a very game Shogun. Cardio won't be a problem for either unless one guy starts dominating.

fuck no. Im sorry Rashad is just not on Shogun's level in any area.