Anyone catch Rampage on Rome?

Wolfgangsta wrote:

I rep'd you LA on the Holywood thing. Ali, knock it off. Holywood is Dan Henderson.

Only if you become a diehard Bisping fan ?

Wolfgangsta wrote:

Let me guess, Thomas Rios wrote that?

There is some validty to some of that, but it totally neglects the fact that Rashad Evans is 200 times faster than Quinton Jackson. His gameplan against Thiago worked great until he got clocked with a hail mary haymaker, but he still won the fight. As long as Rashad works the lead leg, stays out of fire fights, especially early, and throws more than the overhand right, he shouldn't have a problem with Jackson's one dimensional striking game.

Why does a wrestler shoot for takedowns? Did he really ask that? Maybe he should criticize Evans for fighting in a weight class he is much too small for, but to actually say Evans is stupid for trying to use his bread and butter against larger opponents is a fucking joke. What's next, asking Keith Jardine why he throws punches against faster opponents?

Like you said though, he has to use leg kicks and stay out of exchanges and try to use his wrestling to take down a guy who's been in the ring with bigger, stronger, better wrestlers in the past. Rashad got takedowns at will against Thiago but couldn't hold him down, he's definitely not holding down Rampage. It seems like he has to bring in a perfect gameplan and execute it without mistakes just to try and get out of their with a decision win. Rashad was even faster than Forrest, and he was getting it handed to him standing up until he caught him with a big shot. His striking game isn't that impressive

I like the Count...

Ali_1748 wrote:

Wolfgangsta wrote:

I rep'd you LA on the Holywood thing. Ali, knock it off. Holywood is Dan Henderson.

Only if you become a diehard Bisping fan ?

I can't even believe people from the UK like him

Wolfgangsta wrote:

I like the Count...

Change your avatar and signature to glorious Bisping victories, and I shall forever drop the Hollywood moniker .

bwhahah that was funny bobbitt

bobbitt15 wrote:

Ali_1748 wrote:

Wolfgangsta wrote:

I rep'd you LA on the Holywood thing. Ali, knock it off. Holywood is Dan Henderson.

Only if you become a diehard Bisping fan ?

I can't even believe people from the UK like him

I don't. English people will root for any successful British athlete's.

There is a chance Rashad is over valued too, but I am trying as hard as I can to not fall back into a revisionist Pride fanboi who constiantly points out the TUF fighters at LHW only did well because they got lucky against some injured Pride stars and a fading Liddell.

Looks like those of us who thought Rashad, Forrest and Jardine were lousy originally were right after all.

Sherdog fails at picking fights because they take personal bias and twist it to sound like logic.

UFC 113 Sherdog Predictions:

Machida over Shogun - WRONG
Kos over Daley - RIGHT
Stout over Stephens - WRONG
Davis oer Goulet - RIGHT
Cote over Belcher - WRONG
Hendricks over Grant - RIGHT
Hague over Beltran - WRONG
Yoshida over Guymon - WRONG
Kimbo over Meathead - WRONG
Lawlor over Doerkson - WRONG
Salter over MacDonald - RIGHT

4-7

UFC 112

Silva over Maia - RIGHT
BJ over Frankie - WRONG
Hughes over Renzo - RIGHT
dos Anjos over Etim - RIGHT
Story over Osipczak - RIGHT
Grove over Munoz - WRONG
Blackburn over Johnson - WRONG
Veach over Kelly - WRONG
Madsen over Al Turk - RIGHT

5-4

UFC 111

Diaz over Markham - RIGHT
GSP over Hardy - RIGHT
Brown over Almeida - WRONG
Mir over Carwin - WRONG
Miller over Bocek - RIGHT
Wallace over Hamman - WRONG
Drwal over Paul Harris - WRONG
Riddle over Soto - RIGHT
Batman over Camoes - RIGHT
Fitch over Saunders - RIGHT

6-4

In the 15 fights they did get right, they only correctly predicted the way the fight ends 3 or so times, and those were the obvious Hughes/Fitch by decision types.

15-15 over the last 3 events and if I remember correctly that's pretty standard for Sherdog. I'd rather flip a coin or ask Wolfy's daughter for fight picks than go by Sherdog's predictions.

I don't take Sherdog's predictions to heart, but in this particular case I agree with most of the points brought up in that writeup

Rios does all that?

thessy11 wrote:

Sherdog fails at picking fights because they take personal bias and twist it to sound like logic.

UFC 113 Sherdog Predictions:

Machida over Shogun - WRONG
Kos over Daley - RIGHT
Stout over Stephens - WRONG
Davis oer Goulet - RIGHT
Cote over Belcher - WRONG
Hendricks over Grant - RIGHT
Hague over Beltran - WRONG
Yoshida over Guymon - WRONG
Kimbo over Meathead - WRONG
Lawlor over Doerkson - WRONG
Salter over MacDonald - RIGHT

4-7

UFC 112

Silva over Maia - RIGHT
BJ over Frankie - WRONG
Hughes over Renzo - RIGHT
dos Anjos over Etim - RIGHT
Story over Osipczak - RIGHT
Grove over Munoz - WRONG
Blackburn over Johnson - WRONG
Veach over Kelly - WRONG
Madsen over Al Turk - RIGHT

5-4

UFC 111

Diaz over Markham - RIGHT
GSP over Hardy - RIGHT
Brown over Almeida - WRONG
Mir over Carwin - WRONG
Miller over Bocek - RIGHT
Wallace over Hamman - WRONG
Drwal over Paul Harris - WRONG
Riddle over Soto - RIGHT
Batman over Camoes - RIGHT
Fitch over Saunders - RIGHT

6-4

In the 15 fights they did get right, they only correctly predicted the way the fight ends 3 or so times, and those were the obvious Hughes/Fitch by decision types.

15-15 over the last 3 events and if I remember correctly that's pretty standard for Sherdog. I'd rather flip a coin or ask Wolfy's daughter for fight picks than go by Sherdog's predictions.

These were some tough events to pick if I remember correctly, not sure too many of us did better

Some of them were, but so is Rampage-Rashad.

If their prediction comes true they'll look like MMA geniuses, but it's a ballsy prediction. Saying Rashad has virtually no chance is a bit asinine when he's actually favored, albeit as small of a favorite as is numerically possible, on every sportsbook by the guys who pick fights for a living.

I thought besides being overly outspoken about Shad's chances, their prediction was spot on.

He's favored?

Sadly yes

Not related to that, but I'd like to start betting on MMA fights, think I could do pretty well

I bet boxing and MMA regularly. You definitely know the sport well enough to find good value and make smart plays.

You use a website? if so which one?

tolivendiewithLA wrote:

These were some tough events to pick if I remember correctly, not sure too many of us did better

April was the worst I've done on pickems, bad for a whole lot of others too.


Hollywood?

I don't think it all bad to call him that considering he beat the guy whose actual nickname is hollywood. Rampage isn't going anywhere though.

I use Bookmaker LA

Here is a look at some of more known lines

http://www.bestfightodds.com/

Quinton Jackson -103 -115 -105 -103 -115 -115 -105 -112 -115 -110
Rashad Evans -107 -115 -125 -107 -115 -115 -105 -123 -115 -120

They are real close today.

Bookmaker is the 2nd line, even.

Thanks guys, interesting, never looked into it much

I've been studying these lines for the last 30 hr or so, what makes a good bet to you, would you bet on what you think is a sure thing regardless of the line?

If the line gets too high there's really no value in betting ie every GSP/Silva/BJ fight (even though Penn lost the last one). You could conceivably parlay them with something else that you think is a sure thing if you wanted

More often than not I find myself betting underdogs or small favorites that I think will win pretty convincingly. You won't see too many guys betting fighters that are bigger than 3 to 1 favorites straight up. They'll either parlay them with something else or bet on the way they'll win (decision/KO/sub) for a way better price

Thank bro, curious what are you personally betting on if anything?

I'm a little more crazy and would put 500 down on Diaz to make 100, obviously that can backfire.