Can Machida ever (truly) beat Shogun(again)?

Or is this a kryptonite issue?

Probably not. Machida has no clear advantage anywhere against Shogun. Shogun has better BJJ and is just too fast for Machida.

At the very least he would have to come in with a much different strategy but I don't think it really matters much. Shogun's speed and timing when Machida lunges in is too much

Machida can beat Shogun.

He just needs to fight his fight. He was shooting out with Shogun on Saturday. He was expecting Shogun to come in with the same conservative leg kick strategy and Shogun was expecting him to be expecting that.

Shooting for takedowns and rushing his opponent is not Machida's game. He can't do to Shogun what he did to Rashad or Thiago. He's got to point grub, counter, bounce in and out until A) he wins a decision or B) Shogun makes a costly mistake


The Shogun we saw on Saturday was the Shogun Machida had prepared for in their first fight.

Machida IMO came in expecting the wrong thing both times but Shogun is probably just more technically skilled all around and definetly more dangerous than Lyoto

I think Rua not only owns the kryptonite, but I think he provided a pretty good blue print to beat Machida. Work those legs and force Machida to abandon his typical countering gameplan. Easier said then done, perhaps Rua is one of the few guys who can implement it to such an extent, but I for one see Machida as a much more vulnerable fighter now, then I did a few months back.

Machida I believe is talented enough to beat any1 in the world but some guys just have other guys numbers and this is close to that in my opion even though Machida got the decision in the 1st fight I felt he loss as did most who watched the fight.

KingsOwn19 wrote:

Machida can beat Shogun.

He just needs to fight his fight. He was shooting out with Shogun on Saturday. He was expecting Shogun to come in with the same conservative leg kick strategy and Shogun was expecting him to be expecting that.

Shooting for takedowns and rushing his opponent is not Machida's game. He can't do to Shogun what he did to Rashad or Thiago. He's got to point grub, counter, bounce in and out until A) he wins a decision or B) Shogun makes a costly mistake


The Shogun we saw on Saturday was the Shogun Machida had prepared for in their first fight.

Machida IMO came in expecting the wrong thing both times but Shogun is probably just more technically skilled all around and definetly more dangerous than Lyoto

I see the change of strategy as a very interesting discussion. Could Lyoto really rely on the same strategy that led him to one of the most contriversial decisions in the history of the sport? Could he expect to once again gain a decision that few thought he deserved? Or should he evolve his game, as his father said again and again, i that he must do.

I commend Lyoto for being the aggressor, leaving his comfort zone, taking the risks that few thought he would ever do, and not let Rua attack his legs yet again, which Rua was very much doing early in that fight. Rua was prob not the best fighter to test a new strategy, but did he really have an option?

Machida could try and beat him with LNP if he had too. He can take Rua down with ease but Rua cant take him down.

Of course he can. They are both world class fighters but Rua took Machida out of his gameplan. If they fought again Shogun would rightfully be a big favorite, however, no one should be that surprised if Machida wins or if Shogun loses in his first or second title defense to whoever he's fighting. I've been saying this for awhile and it's held true since Chuck's reign...the LHW belt will continue changing hands because the division is so deep and talented. Everyone will beat up on everyone. I hope Shogun proves me wrong because he's a personal favorite of mine but I would be surprised if he defends his belt more than twice.

captain organic wrote:

I think Rua not only owns the kryptonite, but I think he provided a pretty good blue print to beat Machida. Work those legs and force Machida to abandon his typical countering gameplan. Easier said then done, perhaps Rua is one of the few guys who can implement it to such an extent, but I for one see Machida as a much more vulnerable fighter now, then I did a few months back.

And who exactly has the speed technique and athleticism to kick Machida's legs like Shogun did? The first fool that tries to follow the Shogun blue print gets slapped silly by the third round.

Machida aint garbage now all of a sudden. Machida can certainly beat Shogun. Trying to slugfest with Rua before he had established his opponents timing and frustration is not Machida's game at all. Shogun is also ten times as fast and technical as comparable clowns like Rashad and Thiago Silva. What Kings said is right on the money. Either play tag and win on the cards or wait for Shogun's mistake.

Lyoto was now going on 6 rds waiting for that mistake. And the problem with Rua is his chin masks many mistakes, and he was once again working those legs. Could Page who also has a great chin, push Machida up against the cage and begin to work those legs with repeated knee's? Could little Nog work those legs from distance and wait for Machida to leave his comfort zone? I don't rule it out. Many think Bones is a possible top of the food chain caliber fighter in the not too distant. Could he not use his length and athleticism to implement a similar strategy?

captain organic wrote:

Lyoto was now going on 6 rds waiting for that mistake. And the problem with Rua is his chin masks many mistakes, and he was once again working those legs. Could Page who also has a great chin, push Machida up against the cage and begin to work those legs with repeated knee's? Could little Nog work those legs from distance and wait for Machida to leave his comfort zone? I don't rule it out. Many think Bones is a possible top of the food chain caliber fighter in the not too distant. Could he not use his length and athleticism to implement a similar strategy?

If Bones continues the growth curve he's been on he will be at the top of the food chain very soon. I think he could be the next dominant champ at LHW.

Bigs03 wrote:

captain organic wrote:

Lyoto was now going on 6 rds waiting for that mistake. And the problem with Rua is his chin masks many mistakes, and he was once again working those legs. Could Page who also has a great chin, push Machida up against the cage and begin to work those legs with repeated knee's? Could little Nog work those legs from distance and wait for Machida to leave his comfort zone? I don't rule it out. Many think Bones is a possible top of the food chain caliber fighter in the not too distant. Could he not use his length and athleticism to implement a similar strategy?

If Bones continues the growth curve he's been on he will be at the top of the food chain very soon. I think he could be the next dominant champ at LHW.

I still wonder if it's wise to send such a young fighter up against the all mighty top of the 205 division, but Bones has looked as impressive as any 30 yr old out there.

Shogun aint 30 yet. But UFC 120-125 is probably where Rua-Jones I will happen.

Wolfgangsta wrote:

Shogun aint 30 yet. But UFC 120-125 is probably where Rua-Jones I will happen.

dude turns 29 in Nov. kind of overlooked how young he is, and was, when he was beating Page and Nog back in pride at the age of 23. Not too much by way of precedent in terms of really young guys fighting at such a high level, kind of fitting that Bones is looking up at Rua.

redvexx8 wrote:

Machida could try and beat him with LNP if he had too. He can take Rua down with ease but Rua cant take him down.

Four strikes were all he managed from the duration of the time he spent on top after the two take downs before Shogun got it up. And of those he threw zero shots while down the first time. He did throw some good elbows on the way up though. The ground favors Shogun, regardless of who is on top. Machidas best chance would be, like said before his game. Catch Shogun with a big, finishing set up, counter.

captain organic wrote:

KingsOwn19 wrote:

Machida can beat Shogun.

He just needs to fight his fight. He was shooting out with Shogun on Saturday. He was expecting Shogun to come in with the same conservative leg kick strategy and Shogun was expecting him to be expecting that.

Shooting for takedowns and rushing his opponent is not Machida's game. He can't do to Shogun what he did to Rashad or Thiago. He's got to point grub, counter, bounce in and out until A) he wins a decision or B) Shogun makes a costly mistake


The Shogun we saw on Saturday was the Shogun Machida had prepared for in their first fight.

Machida IMO came in expecting the wrong thing both times but Shogun is probably just more technically skilled all around and definetly more dangerous than Lyoto

I see the change of strategy as a very interesting discussion. Could Lyoto really rely on the same strategy that led him to one of the most contriversial decisions in the history of the sport? Could he expect to once again gain a decision that few thought he deserved? Or should he evolve his game, as his father said again and again, i that he must do.

I commend Lyoto for being the aggressor, leaving his comfort zone, taking the risks that few thought he would ever do, and not let Rua attack his legs yet again, which Rua was very much doing early in that fight. Rua was prob not the best fighter to test a new strategy, but did he really have an option?

Well that stategy that led to the controversal decision was a close fight that Machida did win the decision and if he lands a few more knees, kicks, punches what not and scores little points like Shogun was with the kicks, it takes away a lot of the controversy. The first fight is Lyoto's pace though, fighting at that pace, watching out for the leg kicks, etc. Lyoto can win that fight on any given night. He abandoned that on saturday.

Lyoto didnt need to test a new strategy. He has to fight his fight. Guys are setting themselves up for failure when they don't do what makes them successful because they got sucked into a strategy that makes them a completely different fighter. That was not the Machida that was dominating everybody up to winning the belt. Not because he got knocked out but because when Rua put his head down and started swinging and was obviously not going to be doing to leg kick act that night, Lyoto pretty much said fuck it and went in there guns blazing against one of the most dangerous KO artist in the history of the division. Somebody was going to get hurt bad in that situation and i'm going to think the guy who has brutally knocked out some of the best and toughest LHW's in the world aint going to be that guy.

Look at Shogun. He has success rushing guys and knocking their asses out his entire career. He lost a close 5 round decision the first time around fighting Machida's fight. He knocks him out fighting his fight.

but whatever, i think they'll have a third much someday...probably when they are both over the hill.

As for the takedowns, they might of scored some points for Lyoto but he was obviously not comfortable being on the ground with Rua. I don't see them as an advantage for Lyoto in any future matchups.

In all honesty, Machida's biggest weakness isn't his speed or power, but his BJJ prowess is weak compared to Rua's. I think if he does the Machida thing against the next few opponents, while secretly improving his freestyle wrestling, which is a great counter to BJJ, he will beat Rua. It is obvious he has the take down ability, from Sumo, but he needs to learn better top position control in order to keep his opponent where he wants them, once he has learned that, he might be unstoppable. So yes, Machida can truly beat Rua.

If Machida sticks to his first fight strategy while mixing in one to two takedowns per round, then Machida would beat Shogun definitively. Shogun is too explosive to trade with in close quarters. I also think the use of hooks and upper-cuts over straight punches every time would benefit Machida as he counters the kicks. Machida could beat Shogun, but it kind of seems like it's Shogun's time.

And Shogun does have the edge in BJJ, but I don't think he could submit Machida, especially if Machida is on top.

Machida was doing just fine before he got caught. Anyone that doesn't think he can beat Shogun is just crazy.

Other than Wrestling, I don't think any LHW has a clear advantage over Shogun.