UFC 146 Predictions

Junior dos Santos vs. Frank Mir

Originally these two were slated to fight different opponents on this card, however one failed drug test changed everything. Junior Dos Santos was supposed to be fighting Alistair Overeem for the title until he dutchman pissed hot for highly elevated levels of testosterone and an impossible story to go with it. Frank Mir was supposed to fight Cain Velasquez in order to help Cain vault himself back into the title picture for a hopeful rematch with Junior. Though with Overeem off the card things got shuffled around all over the place.

This fight on paper is about as "worst case scenario" as it gets for Frank Mir. He's fighting a younder fighter who is extremely quick, very hard to take down, and has such precision with his hands he can change any fight or end any fight with one shot.Now because this is the heavyweight division striking power overall is pretty much a wash, since near everyone in the division hits hard. However I'm giving Dos Santos an edge in technical striking as well as footwork and speed. On the ground I have to assume Frank is the better grappler overall and has the better submissions because I simply have not seen enough of Dos Santos' ground game, however with how hard Junior is to take down and Frank not having the best takedowns ever I don't see how it gets down there unless Frank knocks Dos Santos down and pounces on him. I see this fight going similar to Dos Santos' fights with Gabriel Gonzaga and Roy Nelson to be honest. He will use his footwork to stay on the outside and pick his shots, exploding in for a combination while using jabs and footwork to keep Frank at bay until Junior decides it's time to come forward. I don't see this fight going the distance, eventually I see Frank taking a nap.

Prediction: Junior Dos Santos by (T)KO


Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva

Cain Velasquez is one fight removed from the 64 second knockout loss to Junior Dos Santos late last year and was originally to face Frank Mir on this card. Though this is yet another fight effected by the removal of Alistair Overeem from the event. Antonio 'Bigfoot' Silva was originally supposed to fight Roy Nelson, but when Cain Velasquez needed a short notice opponent the Brazilian was the only one willing to step up. Despite his willingness to fight above his station I'm having a tough time seeing how Bigfoot wins this fight. Cain will have the advantage in wrestling, in cardio, in pace, and in technical striking. However Bigfoot will be the larger man, and if he can get on top it may be interesting to see what he can do to Velasquez with that black belt jiu jitsu and heavy top game, assuming of course that he can somehow get on top. Silva may have a slight edge in submissions as well but Velasquez just hasn't found himself in too much trouble on that front and Bigfoot isn't a submission wiz by any stretch of the imagination. I see this fight panning out in a bad way for Bigfoot. Cain will likely get the takedown early and often and work the ground and pound game as well as forcing Bigfoot to work and eventually tire him out before forcing a referee stoppage.

Prediction: Cain Velasquez by (T)KO


Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman

This is a fairly interesting matchup in that it's actually a fight Roy Nelson has a chance to win. Nelson has had a rough stretch in his last few fights, going just 1-3 in his last fought fights with his lone win over the faded and retired Mirko Cro Cop Fillipovic. Dave Herman meanwhile owns his only victory in the octagon against the unimpressive Jon Olav Einemo before losing to Stefan Struve by way of knockout. Herman has the edge here in technical striking as well as speed, however it comes at a price. Herman has been known to gas out as the fight progresses, which will present opportunities for Nelson if this fight makes it that far. Nelson has the edge in takedowns, overall grappling, and submissions. If Nelson can drag this fight to the ground he will be in great standing to finish the fight, and if he can do it early and often enough he may just be able to steal the fight way if it goes to decision. I see this fight going similarly to Hermans fight with Einemo, except Nelson will be better equipped to take an opportunity to finish the fight if it's presented to him. Look for the Salavarry position in this fight, folks.

Prediction: Roy Nelson by Decision


Stefan Struve vs. Lavar Johnson

Stefan Struve was originally slated to fight Mark Hunt here, though with the Super Samoan forced out with what is reportedly a torn ACL he is replaced by Lavar Johnson, who just made short work of Pat Barry last month. Johnson truly embodies the role of the heavyweight slugger. He's big, he loves to brawl, and he's not afraid to eat shots while he's doing it. More often than not Johnson is on the right end of the brawl's he forces but I don't think Struve is going to play the game. In technical striking I give the edge to Struve, but there is something to be said for Johnsons ability to walk through a defense and swarm opponents, which has been an area of concern before for Struve. On the ground every advantage goes to Struve after Johnson's showing against Barry. The fortunate part of all this for Struve is that he appears to be looking for the takedown according to recent interviews, the bad news is that Struve is so tall he has a long way down to go if he hopes to get a shoot takedown, he will likely look to clinch up and get a trip. He will have to contend with Johnson's heavy hands in the process. I see this going one of two ways: Either Johnson lays Struve out early on , or Struve weathers the early storm and gets the takedown he needs in order to win this fight. I'm leaning Struve on this one, but it's a tentative thing.

Prediction: Stefan Struve by Submission

Man, it is amazing how this card went from OMFG AMAZING to wtf seemingly over night. It isn't even really relevant to give major breakdowns for these fights cause everything Ludo is saying is basically obvious where as before this was a compelling, historic, awesome card.

I think Nelson looks shitty enough these days that Herman actually getting the job done here is possible though.

Junior Dos Santos vs Frank Mir
Where to start, seriously Im just bummed we are not seeing Overeem, so it is hard to get excited for this, honestly I don't even really care that much about this fight. I think that Mir has a chance of taking this to the mat but doubt that he can keep it there long enough for him to be able to pull a submission off. Who knows though I just don't see Frank being able to handle Dos Santos' stand up. More than likely this ends via TKO before the end of the 3rd.

Cain Velasquez vs Big Foot
Most intriguing fight on the card IMO, I am a Big Foot homer but that doesn't deny the fact that he has been seriously rocked by Mike Kyle and TKO'd by Cormier in 2 of his most recent fights, I just don't see Big Foot being able to handle Velasquez's punches. But then again, that is the Velasquez prior to him getting embarrassed on national television. He looked out of shape and sloppy in the 38 seconds or so that we actually saw him feeling Dos Santos out. While the head says Velasquez, fuck it, Im taking Big Foot to try and brawl and maul tactics.

Roy Nelson vs Pee Wee Herman
Roy Nelson in a fight that nobody outside of Nelson and Pee Wees immediate family will care about

Struve vs Lavar Johnson
Remember when this card was supposed to feature 8 of the best heavyweight in the world? Yuck, Ill take Johnson in the semi upset.

Yeah this card has been hit hard with injuries.

Even with lineup changes, this card is as good as there has been in matchups top to bottom possibly ever.

JDS by KO slight chance mir gets the sub but possible
Cain by tko or dec
Herman dec but rooting for ol roy to ko him
I think struve gets ko'd by lavar in the first and if it gets out of the first struve will hold up for a dec or sub
DRS Vs Stip is anyones fight as they both bring it.

Feeling a little crazy with these predictions.
JDS by KO
Big Foot with the upset TKO
Roy by Sub
SS UD Johnson

JDS by KO

Cain by TKO

PeeWee Dec

Lavar by KO

Wolfgangsta wrote:

GDPofDRC wrote:

Even with lineup changes, this card is as good as there has been in matchups top to bottom possibly ever.

as amazing as the card originally was, there are still some awesome fights

That's all right. Your level of try hard naturally gravitates in a direction which is opposite of how in touch you are. But keep trying, I'm sure there is someone who is still willing to act like they care.

GDP why you getting all pissy? Settle down princess.

Yea, chicken, still some great fights. Still a super awesome card. But best card top to bottom possibly ever? Not even in the best card top to bottom this month possibly. All UFC cards are good. All Strikeforce cards are good. This one is good. But for me, Nelson vs Herman, JDS vs Mir are not fights you'll find on the best matched up card ever. It isn't even close to that. It doesn't stand out at all. It's just a good card with the HW novelty.

Had the maincard survived intact as planned, it would be more of a historic event. Now it is just UFC 146.

killerofchicken wrote:

as amazing as the card originally was, there are still some awesome fights

Yep the main card is nearly incomparable to any other 5 fights on a main card and the undercard is better than many old free cable main cards. Epic event. One all the real hardcores still can't stop talking about around here.

Heavyweight Brazil Junior Dos Santos (c) vs United States Frank Mir
Heavyweight United States Cain Velasquez vs Brazil Antonio Silva
Heavyweight United States Roy Nelson vs United States Dave Herman
Heavyweight Croatia Stipe Miočić vs United States Shane del Rosario
Heavyweight Netherlands Stefan Struve vs United States Lavar Johnson

Dude, this is a cool card but certainly not one of the most anticipated in omg forever. I think the HW novelty factor has sucked you in. I like this card, sure man, but no more and no less than any number of other events scheduled in the near future or that recently took place.

Birdofthad wrote:

Junior Dos Santos vs Frank Mir
Where to start, seriously Im just bummed we are not seeing Overeem, so it is hard to get excited for this, honestly I don't even really care that much about this fight. I think that Mir has a chance of taking this to the mat but doubt that he can keep it there long enough for him to be able to pull a submission off. Who knows though I just don't see Frank being able to handle Dos Santos' stand up. More than likely this ends via TKO before the end of the 3rd.

Cain Velasquez vs Big Foot
Most intriguing fight on the card IMO, I am a Big Foot homer but that doesn't deny the fact that he has been seriously rocked by Mike Kyle and TKO'd by Cormier in 2 of his most recent fights, I just don't see Big Foot being able to handle Velasquez's punches. But then again, that is the Velasquez prior to him getting embarrassed on national television. He looked out of shape and sloppy in the 38 seconds or so that we actually saw him feeling Dos Santos out. While the head says Velasquez, fuck it, Im taking Big Foot to try and brawl and maul tactics.

Roy Nelson vs Pee Wee Herman
Roy Nelson in a fight that nobody outside of Nelson and Pee Wees immediate family will care about

Struve vs Lavar Johnson
Remember when this card was supposed to feature 8 of the best heavyweight in the world? Yuck, Ill take Johnson in the semi upset.

You're not a hardcore fan. Despite the fact barely four or five threads about this card exist on the first two pages of the forum, THIS IS THE EVENT HARDCORE FANS CANT STOP TALKING ABOUT. derp

Cigano by KO
Cain by TKO
Nelson by UD
Struve by SUB

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/5/25/3043552/ufc-146-staff-picks-predictions-dos-santos-mir#storyjump

I can't think of a maincard in recent history that appeared this terribly lopsided. This is why outside of GDP's universe, the card doesn't have unusual hardcore buzz. The HW factor makes it more of a casual fans card.

Hmm so Bloody Elbow posts like minded picks that each lean toward the betting favorite and it's a card full of lopsided fights. All that effort finally paid off, I'm not so interested in this card now and my interest in general toward fights is diminished, awesome job, great work.

Shit, the Facebook and Prelims on this card are better than some PPV main cards and most Fuel, FX, Spike and Versus cards.

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX)

Diego Brandao vs. Darren Elkins
Edson Barboza vs. Jamie Varner
C.B. Dollaway vs. Jason "Mayhem" Miller
Dan Hardy vs. Duane "Bang" Ludwig

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)

Paul Sass vs. Jacob Volkmann
Kyle Kingsbury vs. Glover Teixeira
Mike Brown vs. Daniel Pineda

wolf said

Quote :

You're not a hardcore fan. Despite the fact barely four or five threads about this card exist on the first two pages of the forum, THIS IS THE EVENT HARDCORE FANS CANT STOP TALKING ABOUT. derp

wolf said

Quote :

I can't think of a maincard in recent history that appeared this terribly lopsided. This is why outside of GDP's universe, the card doesn't have unusual hardcore buzz. The HW factor makes it more of a casual fans card.

Doesn't Cain vs. Bigfoot excite the hardcore fans ?

There are maybe three fights I have average to mild interest in on this card. All others I am very interested in seeing.

Every fight excites hardcore fans, but I am teasing GDP for saying this is the most derped about card in MMA history. This is an average UFC for me. But for it to be historic, we'd need

A. historic match ups.

B. compelling fight booking

Since most of the major fights fell off this card or were rearranged, and we've got neither. We just have some great fights. Great =/= the mostest bestest omgest everest.

This isn't "I dont like this card", nor is it "this card sucks", it is only "this isn't anywhere near the best card of all time".

I don't even think this is the best card all month.

The undercard is average. The maincard only stands as a shell of what it formerly was. It is a good card. I don't mean to personally insult your character GDP.

I am sorry you've invested yourself emotionally into this card to the point my not accepting it as the MMA event in history offends you personally. Maybe you oughta see someone about that.