Lil Nog, will he be a contender at 205?

His only losses were to the janitor which was avenged, a close decision with Shogun, & a crazy KO from Soko.

He's subbed Hendo, has beaten Overeem twice (finished him once), and is on a 5 fight win streak.

but he will lose to Luiz Cane

He's an upper echelon guy at 205 but will lose to Cane

He'll be a contender, but all of the power at 205 short of Mousasi lives in the UFC. He might beat Cane but he'll not likely get past the likes of Machida, Rua (Don't think a 2nd fights as close) or Evans. I group him in that second tier with Cane, Forrest, Tito and Thiago. I know it's tough to rate him after his loss to Soko since he's really fought no one noteworthy since, but I don't think that the sheets that have him ranked around 12-15 are giving him nearly enough respect for his ability.

I think he's a contendor, the problem is that 205 is stacked with contendors.

If he's a Nog, he's a contender. lol

Even if he isn't a real challenger for the title, the UFC will likely use him as a contender anyway since the division is a lot less stacked than it used to be with the relative demises of Franklin, Jardine, Liddell, Wandy, Forrest, Vera and it appears Rampage.