Long division: A closer look at the mixed bag of UFC light heavyweight contenders

http://www.mmamania.com/2011/5/2/2150226/the-mixed-bag-of-contenders-that-is-the-205-lbs-division



UFC 129: "St. Pierre vs. Shields" is officially in the books and as a Torontonian, I thought it was a great event and possibly the best UFC event I've seen in a long time (number two is probably UFC 116).

So, after watching such a great card and of course, as many of you know, being the biggest fan of Lyoto Machida other than his Urologist, I decided to share some thoughts on the division he currently competes in.

First and foremost, I know there seems to be a lot of Randy Couture haters lurking and while I've always appreciated his work, I too admit he's gotten a lot of the demands he's asked for throughout his career.

Yet, there can be no doubt, the man is a legend. Hat's off to you "Natural," you'll be remembered fondly.

So, with "Captain America" out of the picture, a few things seem to open up within the UFC light heavyweight division.

Let's take a closer look:



Of course, I have to talk about my boy Machida.

Now I won't criticize those of you who have been throwing Lyoto's own piss at him in hate, only to now shower him with awesomeness after he broke his losing skid. But, as a loyal fan through thick and thin, it is nice to see the man get a "W" in such stunning fashion.

Some people have been saying Lyoto should fight division champion Jon Jones immediately and I have to disagree. I think Lyoto needs one more victory in order to qualify for a title shot. I'd like to see him fight Ryan Bader once "Darth" takes care of Tito Ortiz.

That fight is just around the corner and means Lyoto doesn't have to wait too long for his next match-up.



Rashad seems to have no luck these days.

First he blows out his knee before a title shot. Then his stablemate calls him out for no particular reason prior to backing out their title match. So next, he faces Phil "Mr. Wonderful" Davis.

To be honest, I think this is a worse match-up for him than Jon Jones. Why? Well, he doesn't have the knowledge advantage that he had with "Bones," in seeing what he does in practice. Also, losing to the champ still means you're a contender. Losing to another contender knocks you down a peg.

I think this fight dictates where Rashad will be over the next 12 months.



Mauricio Rua is a warrior on the brink of a rebound.

However, an old nemesis stands in his way. Many people seem to think that "Shogun" has his rematch with Forrest Griffin in the bag.

I'm not so sure.

The Brazilian's biggest enemy has traditionally been himself. I was among a few who were worried when we heard that "Shogun" had not adapted his gameplan when he found out Jon Jones was his new challenger for UFC 128. I think that he can beat Forrest, but Mr. Griffin always has a few tricks (and a good gameplan) up his sleeve.

This will not be an easy fight for Mr. Rua and like Rashad, this fight will tell us about his future over the next 12 months.



I think Quinton Jackson is, next to Rashad, the closest to a title shot.

That is of course, provided he gets by Matt Hamill. This looks like an easy fight on paper and while I am also inclined to say "Rampage" should have this in the bag, you never know in MMA. With a win, Jackson is likely next in line for a title shot, provided Rashad loses.

So as you all can see, there are a lot of moving parts in this division. If "A" loses, "B" may have a shot, but "C" can also jump the line.

So Maniacs, what is your outlook for the future of these contenders in the 205-pound division?

machida is the front runner for me.

After really only having 1 win in his last 4 fights?

that one win coming against couture? get the fuck outa here!!!

just because he might have a style suited best for the champ don't mean he deserves the shot

freakzilla wrote:

After really only having 1 win in his last 4 fights?

it really should be 2-2 for machida. he lost to shogun twice and beat couture and jackson.

as for jackson he is 2-2 as well with wins over old wandy and jardine and loses to machida and evans

evans is 3-1 with wins over thiago,forrest and jackson and loses to machida

rua is 3-1 as well with wins over old chuck and machida twice and loss to bones

bones is 4-0 with wins over rua,bader,janitor and vera

forrest is 2-2 with wins over franklin and old tito and loses to anderson and evans

in the end as far as who deserves it it should be evans followed by a tie between rampage and machida. one can make the case winner of forrest/rua could be 3rd in line. now if we were putting them on who would be who then evans and machida would be the best ones to challenge bones. they may not win but they have a better chance than the others

Machida lost to Rampage fair and square.

Machida was clearly the better fighter than Rampage and no one disagreed with that. Rampage landed nothing and Machida nearly finished him. Machida went 1-1 with Rua, with one of those fights being a close and controversial win, that was, controversial or not, still very close regardless. Machida of all the fighters in the UFC is clearly the best out of the possible contenders. But if he needs to slap Rampage or Evans around again to prove it I'd be cool with it.

So Machida V Rampage if he wins, if he loses then the winner of Forrest V Rua to see who would be the #1 contender after Jones V Rashad providing Rashad gets by Davis.

freakzilla wrote:

Machida lost to Rampage fair and square.

yes he did but thats cus rampage decisioned him, he didnt beat him. they way rampage won is no different than the way a wrestler can win a fight with just takedowns. like said before, jackson won but in the end it was clear who the better striker and fighter were. in the end i have no problem jackson getting a gift decisision for machida had just gotten one 2 fights earlier

When you win a fight it means you beat your opponent. Rampage won 2 rounds. Machida is behind Evans and Rampage for a title shot.

My prediction:

1. Evans -- next, Phil just doesn't have the tools to get him in my opinion. And a perfect warm-up for Jones [big, athletic wrestler with unorthodox striking] and coming off a serious injury, plus ring rust.
2. Page -- if he gets past Hamill, the UFC will want this. Forrest could beat him to it if he beats Rua, but I have a hard time seeing it.
3. Machida -- one more win over, say, Bader will put him in line.

Rua was so thoroughly dominated in every way, that I think he will have to wait a while, unless Jones loses.

And for the record, Rampage admitted that Machida kicked his ass after the fight.

boomer sooner wrote:

And for the record, Rampage admitted that Machida kicked his ass after the fight.

I know he said that right after the fight, but that is natural since Machida had the stronger finish. But I'm pretty sure a couple days later he backed off that a little bit.

OU wrote:

boomer sooner wrote:

And for the record, Rampage admitted that Machida kicked his ass after the fight.

I know he said that right after the fight, but that is natural since Machida had the stronger finish. But I'm pretty sure a couple days later he backed off that a little bit.

he has stated multiply times after he watched that he thought he won

freakzilla wrote:

When you win a fight it means you beat your opponent. Rampage won 2 rounds. Machida is behind Evans and Rampage for a title shot.

in the same sense rua lost to machida. i never said page didnt win but you can say he beat him. he decisioned him to win. once again the way page won was no different than the way a wrestler wins by takedowns. he used the point system to his advantage. did he land more damage? no. did he outstrike machida? no. heck he didnt even do anything the first 3 mins of the fight while machida was landing the inside leg kicks. in the end rampage won locking up with machida and holding him against the cage for 7 mins of the fight. i do agree with you that a win is a win but he won by octogon control and lost the exchanges and the hits landed. once again, i saw rampage win 2 rounds but he decisioned machida 2 rounds, not beat him. its not like he outstruck him,out wrestled him or landed any damage.

killerofchicken wrote:

OU wrote:

boomer sooner wrote:

And for the record, Rampage admitted that Machida kicked his ass after the fight.

I know he said that right after the fight, but that is natural since Machida had the stronger finish. But I'm pretty sure a couple days later he backed off that a little bit.

he has stated multiply times after he watched that he thought he won

if he believes he won based on octogon control and overpowering machida against the cage then i complete agree with him. the scoring system favors that. but if he thinks he won based on striking,damage or even wrestling, then no, he is just being the comical jackson as usual. what do believe he thinks is the reason he won

throwdownfight1 wrote:

killerofchicken wrote:

OU wrote:

boomer sooner wrote:

And for the record, Rampage admitted that Machida kicked his ass after the fight.

I know he said that right after the fight, but that is natural since Machida had the stronger finish. But I'm pretty sure a couple days later he backed off that a little bit.

he has stated multiply times after he watched that he thought he won

if he believes he won based on octogon control and overpowering machida against the cage then i complete agree with him. the scoring system favors that. but if he thinks he won based on striking,damage or even wrestling, then no, he is just being the comical jackson as usual. what do believe he thinks is the reason he won

he believes he won via MMA judging, which he did... who cares about pride judging in the UFC?

Rua lost to Machida because of stupid judging not because Machida actually won the fight.

killerofchicken wrote:

throwdownfight1 wrote:

killerofchicken wrote:

OU wrote:

boomer sooner wrote:

And for the record, Rampage admitted that Machida kicked his ass after the fight.

I know he said that right after the fight, but that is natural since Machida had the stronger finish. But I'm pretty sure a couple days later he backed off that a little bit.

he has stated multiply times after he watched that he thought he won

if he believes he won based on octogon control and overpowering machida against the cage then i complete agree with him. the scoring system favors that. but if he thinks he won based on striking,damage or even wrestling, then no, he is just being the comical jackson as usual. what do believe he thinks is the reason he won

he believes he won via MMA judging, which he did... who cares about pride judging in the UFC?

Once again i agree, he won via ma judging. Something that hasnt been so good in several fight like this one. Also who said anything about pride judging, im basing my post on the fight we saw. The way rampage won was no differnt from how others win from takedowns in fights

Rashad gets a title shot with a win over Davis.

Rampage will have to beat Hammil. Then, I am willing to bet, he will have to fight Machida again. The winner of Rampage/Machida gets the 2nd shot.

The winner of Forrest/Shogun will probably have to fight the loser of Machida/Rampage2, or Phil Davis, to dub themselves worthy of the 3rd title shot. If either were to lose, the division would be back at square 1.

This division is fucked.

freakzilla wrote:

Rua lost to Machida because of stupid judging not because Machida actually won the fight.

What i give props in the rua fight was octogon control to machida at times when he would attack and rua would block and retreat. Also how he would stop the several takedowns rua tried thus controlling wer the fight took place. For that i give machida props and the edge in the fight however it was clear rua outstruck him and landed the most damage. To sum it up i believe rua beat him however machida got a gift decsision. Now as for page, what advantage did page have over machida other than being able to over power him and not hold him against the cage without landing any damage. I give page props to be able to do that but what else did he do. Machida landed the better strikes,hurt him and stayed alot more busy than page. So what did page do to make u think he beat machida other than what i mention about him

jewzilla wrote:

Rashad gets a title shot with a win over Davis.

Rampage will have to beat Hammil. Then, I am willing to bet, he will have to fight Machida again. The winner of Rampage/Machida gets the 2nd shot.

The winner of Forrest/Shogun will probably have to fight the loser of Machida/Rampage2, or Phil Davis, to dub themselves worthy of the 3rd title shot. If either were to lose, the division would be back at square 1.

This division is fucked.

I agree with all of this. Good post

Dana already said no Rampage-Machida rematch as in his opinion Rampage won it fair and square.

I think the Evans-Davis winner gets the next shot. The Rampage-Hamill winner fights the Rua-Forrest winner for the next shot. Machida gets Bader-Ortiz winner next.

freakzilla wrote:

Dana already said no Rampage-Machida rematch as in his opinion Rampage won it fair and square.

I think the Evans-Davis winner gets the next shot. The Rampage-Hamill winner fights the Rua-Forrest winner for the next shot. Machida gets Bader-Ortiz winner next.

Up until a few weeks ago dana also believed no sf champ was anywhere close to the level of the ufc champs, now he wants to sell us gsp/ diaz. Sometimes danas opinion is more business oriented than anything

freakzilla wrote:

Dana already said no Rampage-Machida rematch as in his opinion Rampage won it fair and square.

I think the Evans-Davis winner gets the next shot. The Rampage-Hamill winner fights the Rua-Forrest winner for the next shot. Machida gets Bader-Ortiz winner next.

Dana was thinking poorly of Machida at that time, because Machida had been fighting lackluster fights. Machida wrecked shop on Randy in impressive fashion. Be on the look out for Dana to change his mind again.

Also, why would Machida vs. Bader/Ortiz even be an option? That would be a god awful move on the UFC's part, and an even more god awful move on Machidas career for signing to the fight. The winner of the Bader/Ortiz fight, will definitely be against a loser of one of the contender fights. More than likely Forrest.

Im not a Machida nut hugger at all, but... Machida, Rampage, Shogun, Forrest, and Davis (depending on his next showing) are title contenders. Bader, Hamill, and Tito, are not.