Early UFC 139 Estimated Buyrate: 270,000

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2011/11/24/2584175/early-ufc-139-buyrate-estimate-270000-mma-news

As usual, the guru Dave Meltzer is the first person to throw out a number in regards to the UFC 139 buyrate. And while no one was really expecting a huge number and this is just an early indicator of the final tally - this isn't good. Here's what he had to say in this week's Wrestling Observer (subscription required):

Very early estimates indicate the PPV numbers are going to fall very slightly less than UFC 138, so a first estimate would be around 270,000, although more accurate numbers won’t be available for two weeks.

The key thing here is the last bit - this is not the final number. But let's be honest. The number isn't likely to double in the next two weeks, so this event will be another in a long line of disappointing PPV buyrates that stretches back all the way to UFC 130. With the exception of UFC 135 (which did about 475k), every card has done under 350k. And the last three have all been under 280k, if this number holds steady.

There are many things that can be used to justify the low buyrates - injuries to major stars like Georges St. Pierre and Brock Lesnar, the Fox deal taking away a PPV windfall fight, etc. With only two PPV's left in 2011, the UFC is guaranteed to be way down in PPV revenue and buys compared to 2010, even if they drew a gigantic number for UFC 141. Sure, UFC on Fox was a huge success and a big positive for the sport. But in terms of PPV, which Dana says will continue to be the core of their business model -is there cause for concern yet?

Ouch!

I know there was a lack of promotion but damn that's low.

Unfortunate that more people did not see such a great card.

But I do not see this as a bad sign. Great TV ratings, and poor ppv #'s, hopefully push this sport more and more to free TV. Let the advertisers pay for this.

Not sure what's so ouch about this. Don't see how anyone could've predicted a number north of like 325k

i didnt think it would pop a big one, i expected something a little over 300K so this was below expectations.

captain organic wrote:

Unfortunate that more people did not see such a great card.

Yep

ppv overkill

I think the low number has more to do with a lack of Spike pushing the cards, while also counter-programming against the cards, more than anything else. I think we will have a better idea of what the Fox impact will be in the next two years and I think that is a going to tell us more than anything what direction the company is going in.

Andrew the Raider King wrote:

I think the low number has more to do with a lack of Spike pushing the cards, while also counter-programming against the cards, more than anything else. I think we will have a better idea of what the Fox impact will be in the next two years and I think that is a going to tell us more than anything what direction the company is going in.

U bring up a good point, although I have an opposite interpretation of it. This was the first card that was advertised during a fox card. 8 million people saw the ad for the hendo/rua fight. Makes the 270 # even more dissapointing, at least from the UFC's point of view.

Yeah thats pretty low.

captain organic wrote:

Andrew the Raider King wrote:

I think the low number has more to do with a lack of Spike pushing the cards, while also counter-programming against the cards, more than anything else. I think we will have a better idea of what the Fox impact will be in the next two years and I think that is a going to tell us more than anything what direction the company is going in.

U bring up a good point, although I have an opposite interpretation of it. This was the first card that was advertised during a fox card. 8 million people saw the ad for the hendo/rua fight. Makes the 270 # even more dissapointing, at least from the UFC's point of view.

I can see your point too. But remember, this is going to be advertised to a whole new audience. They don't know Hendo or Rua, so you are advertising to a lot of people who have never heard of them. I think if Fox puts a big foot forward on behalf of the UFC and really makes a major push for the Brock fight at UFC 141, we could see some awesome numbers. But that really is up to the UFC and more importantly Fox. I still think Spike will counterprogram it.