UFC 150 Predictions

Benson Henderson vs Frankie Edgar

In February Benson Henderson and Frankie Edgar fought in Japan. In a competitive contest "Bendo" took a five round decision to win the lightweight title. Yet again we have Frankie Edgar involved in a rematch for the lightweight title. Over the last two and a half years the lightweight title has been effectively hijacked with three straight rematches between Frankie Edgar fighting BJ Penn twice in a row, Gray Maynard twice in a row, and now Benson Henderson twice in a row. The difference this time is that Frankie won't be holding the belt on the way to the cage.

As far as the fight goes this is still a close fight in alot of areas. Striking technique is slightly easier this time around. Frankie Edgar's elite footwork helped him and hurt him last time around. Henderson with his tae kwon do background incorporating lots of kicks and distance control seemed to allow his size and strength to work to his advantage. I'm going to give it to Henderson this time around. Striking power I'd give to Henderson. Last time his strikes were clearly connecting with more "oomph" behind them, and that upkick nearly put Edgar away early on. Wrestling is really a bit of a wash still. While Edgar did score some takedowns he couldn't hold Henderson down for more than a few seconds, save for the instance in which he almost got his face kicked off his face. Overall grappling I'm still giving the edge to Henderson for his submissions, submission defense, and clinch game. One thing that can't really be measured here is Edgar's knack for adapting to and figuring out opponents in these rematches. I still think Henderson is a terrible matchup for him. Size with the cardio to go with it, striking technique more on par with Frankie's own, and incredibly durable to boot. I'm seeing another decision for Bendo here.

Prediction: Benson Henderson by Decision


Donald Cerrone vs Melvin Guillard

Both of these guys were thought to be possible title contenders just one win away from a title shot at some point last year. However those thoughts were shattered in short order by Joe Lauzon and Nate Diaz. However despite those losses, as well as Guillards loss to Jim Miller these two have rebounded from the losses with dominating wins(though Guillard got himself in some trouble with Camoes) over Jeremy Stephens and Fabricio Camoes. Though the past has repeatedly proven that having any kind of faith in Melvin Guillard is a fools errand. He has shown us time and again that he is mentally weak and loves to believe his own hype. Donald Cerrone has hiccuped before in the past as well, but never against fighters he was supposed to squash. As far as the fight goes Cerrone should be the more technical striker, though Guillard's athleticism allows him to bridge striking gaps with speed and precision. Striking power I have to give to Guillard for his one strike knockouts/knock downs and the way he has been able to turn tides with a single strike. Wrestling is an obvious edge for Guillard, while overall grappling due to submissions and overall technique go to Cerrone. I see this playing out fairly even to start, Guillard won't want to engage right away, he'll want to suss out Cerrone for a while. Eventually though Cerrone will get into his groove and there won't be much Guillard can do about it. I see Cerrone knocking Guillard down and following him to the mat for a submission.

Prediction: Donald Cerrone by Submission


Jake Shields vs Ed Herman

Jake Shields is finally moving back up to Middleweight for the first time since entering the UFC. Ready to welcome him back to the division is Ed Herman. Herman has put together three finishes in a row over Tim Creduer, Kyle Noke, and Clifford Starks since his last loss. Jake Shields hasn't had the best of luck in the UFC. A very close decision over Martin Kampmann, a decisive loss to GSP, getting knocked out by Jake Ellenberger. His only smooth performance was against Yoshihiro Akiyama in which he couldn't take Akiyama down, but outstruck him almost 3 to 1 in significant strikes. Striking seems to be an area that Shields has dilligently worked to improve over these last couple years. Herman has the kind of power to give Shields problems standing, but Shields should be the better technical striker as funny as that sounds. Grappling is Shields' playground both in wrestling and overall grappling. Though Herman has some slick subs to his name, Shields is an elite MMA grappler and won't be caught in anything without being severely hurt first, and maybe not even then. I see this one going similarly to most every fight Shields fought at Middleweight. He'll take Herman down repeatedly and proceed to show him why he was undefeated at middleweight for so long.

Prediction: Jake Shields by Decision

I think the Herman-Shields fight is very interesting. I would probably give Herman the edge standing, he will certainly have the power advantage on the feet, probably the stronger fighter overall. Jake may have the speed advantage but I wouldn't say he has the technical advantage. Also Herman has good wrestling himself. I don't think it will be easy for Jake to get him down. I think eventually he will, but it's not going to be easy. If he does get it down he should have the advantage in the submission game but again Herman is pretty good there himself. I could see Herman making things difficult for Jake by keeping it standing and landing the harder shots. But eventually I think Jake is able to control it on the ground and possibly come away with the submission. I'm leaning Jake 29-28 UD. I think Herman has the skill set to make things difficult.

Melvin says he wants to stand and band, which if he was still at Jackson's would mean he is going to use a heavy wrestling strategy in this fight. But hopefully that isn't the case now that Melvin is a Blackzilian.

Bendo via decision
Cowboy via TKO
Herman via decision

If Ed wins, I think he cracks my top 15.

jeez, that Bendo pic looks so shopped!

killerofchicken wrote:

jeez, that Bendo pic looks so shopped!

IMO both Frankie and Bendo look like digital, video game versions.

Still better then that one poster of Frankie that featured someone that looked nothing like Frankie lol

I think the Main event will look a lot alike the first fight, close enough that it will not be 100% decisive. it will be a split or arguable 3-2 win in the end. I think Bendo takes it again. I think it will be a truly awesome display. The LW division is #1 imo for a lot of good reasons, talent, depth, entertainment, etc., but I think this PPV sells very average. This fight should of been the main event on FOX last Saturday. The Shogun vs Vera Lineup probably would of sold just as well as this will had the roles been reversed. This would of been better, even knowing how great the FOX card ended up being. You can sell gold, the championship fight in the best division between two guys who just fought a good title fight against each other. A non-mma fan will see that as something, where name fighters like Shogun mean nothing to someone who has not watched mma. The common sense hype for that would be better equipped to take care of itself then Dana White having to do the whole LHW #1 contender facade in an attempt to create non-mma fan interest. That is the Denial and Error of the FOX show. They need nothing less than Title Fights or Shogun vs Hendo, Wanderlei vs Vitor type super fights to carry the banner. They need to treat the FOX show like it is bigger than their PPV shows and sacrafice, four times a year, a title match. Only MMA fans are caring about the way they have been running it, real MMA fans have grown this sport as much as possible over the past 10 years, upgrading the FOX show is the step UFC should take in their next turn at this game. Tangent over.

I actually don't like either Cowboy or the Young Assassin, but juxtaposed against each other, I hope Melvin clowns Donald. That said, if Melvin doesn't give away a stupid position and get napped, I think this could be a very good fight. Cowboy is probably more talented, but Melvin hits harder, and is the faster stronger athlete. In the end, I think Melvin blows it.

I have little faith in Jake Shileds at any weight, but he is good and I think he can at least grind enough to get his hand raised after 15 minutes. Not gonna surprise me though if he is again KO'd.

i've got guillard by KO unless he does something stupid and hands it to cerrone on a plate.

unless guillard leaves his chin or his neck hanging out somewhere it shouldn't be i don't see how cerrone can live with his speed.

http://mmajunkie.com/news/30099/jake-shields-admits-he-underrated-ed-herman-for-return-to-middleweight-at-ufc-150.mma
Shields' first thought was: easy fight.

Then he looked at footage on Herman and changed his mind.

"I'm like, 'Wow, this guy's pretty good,'" Shields on Wednesday told MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com). "Before, he looked tough. But in his last three fights, he's looked impressive. I don't want to be the guy he makes a name off of."

Shields, however, admitted he felt weakened by the altitude of Denver and wished he would have arrived sooner to acclimate. But he hopes that by Saturday, he will be as close as possible to 100 percent.

"It's been a little tougher than I thought, but I'm definitely glad I came out a little bit earlier," he said. "Yesterday, I finally had a decent workout. The first few days, I was struggling. I have a couple more days. I'm going to train hard tonight and hope that I'll feel a lot more adjusted.

That's not a good sign. Jake underestimating Ed and underestimating the altitude. Ed on the other hand is getting up for a big fight and trains at altitude. It's gonna be a tough fight for Jake.

Guillard has the tools to beat Donald but we all know he's prone to the odd brain fart.

Guillard came in at 157lbs and choose to give up part of his purse rather than cut the couple lbs.

Chumptastic!

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