Junior dos Santos Installed as Early Favorite Against UFC Champ Cain Velasquez

http://www.mmafighting.com/2011/06/12/junior-dos-santos-installed-as-early-favorite-against-ufc-champ/

Junior dos Santos had not even gotten back to his locker room by the time fans and media everywhere were deep in thought about his future UFC heavyweight championship bout with Cain Velasquez.

Another party quite interested: gamblers.

According to noted MMA linesmaker Nick Kalikas, dos Santos is a slight edge in the possible fall matchup.

Just moments after UFC 131 ended, Kalikas installed dos Santos as a -125 favorite, giving him a very slight edge over the champion, who was listed at -105.

On Saturday night, dos Santos won a convincing unanimous decision over Shane Carwin, lumping him up over the course of the three-round fight after nearly finishing him in the first.

Dos Santos (13-1) has yet to lose in the UFC, winning seven straight bouts. He's only failed to finish two of those, but even in those, he's been dominant. Against Carwin, he out-landed him 104-22 according to FightMetric.com.

Also according to the site, the two are No. 1 and No. 2 in UFC history in strikes landed per minute, with Velasquez landing the way at 7.46 per minute and JDS just behind at 6.79.

The unbeaten Velasquez (9-0) is still recovering from shoulder surgery stemming from an injury suffered in his title win against Brock Lesnar last October. The UFC is hoping that he will be ready to return for an October event in Houston, though that fight is not yet official.

Good. I hope it gets bet up even more

If Cain is 100% he wins. If he is below 90% then JDS wins. I hate that injuries and cage rust are deciding big fights now.

JDS looked pretty decent vs Carwin's takedowns, but Cain is a whole different animal. I think Cain wis if he wrestles and JDS wins if they stand. <

I think JDS should be the favorite. Cain is coming off an injury and hasnt fought in a year. JDS has just destroyed a top 5 HW and showed he could stop some takedowns and when he was taken down he popped right back up. His jab is devastating and as of right now I pick him to win also.

Carwin's takedowns were weak and nowhere near the class of Brock's or Cain's.

freakzilla wrote:

Carwin's takedowns were weak and nowhere near the class of Brock's or Cain's.

Im not saying that but what I am saying is we seen him stuff them very easily and before we were saying could he stuff them at all. Lets not act like Cain is going to try for a ton of takedowns anyways. He will be just fine standing with JDS until he gets hurt and then starts shooting for takedowns.

freakzilla wrote:

If Cain is 100% he wins. If he is below 90% then JDS wins. I hate that injuries and cage rust are deciding big fights now.

Cigano can still beat Cain if he's 100%, he's got the striking, size and JJ to make this an interesting fight.

JDS further confirmed what I already knew; he is the best HW fight for Cain in the UFC. He answered some of the takedown D questions last night. He likely would of beat Brock the same way or finished him out right. Cain though is obvioulsy a different beast all together. JDS being a favorite the day after beastiing Carwin is pure fickleness, nothing more, but the line should be close, he is that good.

ring rust and career altering injury factor is why clearly. I like those odds. Seem right. JDS has been active and just beat a D2 champion wrestler at his own game. Cain's takedowns are more explosive of course, but there is no wrestler in the UFC in his league. Right now the only UFC fighter with a chance against him is JDS. If Cain fights Brock 20 times he beats him 20 times. If he fights Carwin he probably wins 15(Cain's been rocked badly before and Carwin was off a big lay off himself last night, still a valid number 3 UFC HW)

right now i find it hard to see how JDS(who I have been touting since his arrival) can deal with the level changes cain will bring. Cain can mix the standup and shoot without notice. I could see him getting 2-3 tds a round.

by moving, using that jab to bust him up from range, popping up when taken down, and keeping the fight at distance. This fight is very competitive

Wolfgangsta wrote:

by moving, using that jab to bust him up from range, popping up when taken down, and keeping the fight at distance. This fight is very competitive

I hope your right wolf, I want JDS to have the belt but I didnt see anough movement from JDS last night. Maybe its because he didnt have to against carwin.

Cain is likely a hair faster as well and has shown great power. How much this surgery and lack of training offset how quickly he was improving in everything is the big key here

JDS still leaves his chin exposed and head up when he comes in to throw a lot, he's just a lot faster and has better technique than the guys he's been fighting. May not be the case here

this is why I think JDS should be a slight favorite. If Cain and JDS each fought last night I'd take Cain as a slight favorite

http://mmajunkie.com/news/23981/oddsmaker-oddessa-opens-champ-velasquez-as-a-150-favorite-over-dos-santos.mma
UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez (9-0 MMA, 7-0 UFC) has been
tapped the favorite over top contender Junior Dos Santos (12-1 MMA, 6-0
UFC).

Granted, the duo hasn't officially been booked for an upcoming card,
though UFC president Dana White has targeted the heavyweight blockbuster
for an October or November event, possibly UFC 136 in Houston.

But noted MMA oddsmaker Joey Oddessa has set a line of -150 for the champ Velasquez and +120 for challenger Dos Santos.

My crystal ball prediction on the line is
Cain -140
JDS + 110

GDPofDRC wrote:

My crystal ball prediction on the line is
Cain -140
JDS + 110

I think you will find some sites will have Cain and some will have JDS.

Yeah but come fight time I plan on scouring the web for the book that has these exact odds so I can re-post in this thread with a large

GDPofDRC wrote:

Yeah but come fight time I plan on scouring the web for the book that has these exact odds so I can re-post in this thread with a large

That can't happen. Maybe your post disappears into cyber space?

That's okay, I dup'd it.... In my head.