UFC128 Predictions

Mauricio Rua vs. Jon Jones

Ludo: In one of the most anticipated matchups for quite a while, certainly in the first quarter of 2011, Up and coming phenom Jon "Bones" Jones will challenge Mauricio "Shogun" Rua for the Light Heavyweight title. Rua is coming off another knee injury suffered during his first round knockout of Lyoto Machida back in May of last year. Jones, meanwhile, has accumulated impressive dominating victories over Vladmir Matyushenko and Ryan Bader in the time Rua has missed. Jones brings to the table a flashy style all around but behind it is a seemingly world crushing game backing it up. Rua has shown flashes of being the monolith talent that won the grand prix in 2005.

As far as the matchup goes this one could get interesting. Jones is far and away the better wrestler, which is no surprise. Mauricio brings superior striking technique and a dynamic grappling arsenal with him. Jones has the longer reach but Rua is no stranger on getting inside on a seemingly untouchable fighter. Striking power is more or less a wash as both men break things when they get around to throwing they're hands around. I think we will see some testing at first. Both trying to feel the other out standing for at least half a round before anything really gets under way. Jones may not have much trouble getting the takedown but the real question is what can he do with it with Shogun underneath him? I don't see him having such easy passing guard as he did with Matyushenko. I honestly believe Rua will be much more active even from the bottom with submission attempts and positioning. Jones will have to be wary of getting his long limbs trapped in anything or getting swept from half guard as many wrestlers are prone to.

I don't know that Jones will want to spend too much time standing with Rua. We saw it in the Bader matchup that Jones likes to play to his own strengths and absorb as little damage as possible in doing it. He will likely look for the takedown early and often hoping to avoid getting drawn into a kickboxing battle which don't bode exceptionally well for his chances. All in all though experience may play the biggest factor here, and Shogun has much more of it. Skill may very well overcome the hype this time. The longer this fight goes on the better off Shogun will be. Jones has only been truly pushed once in his time in the UFC when he fought Stephan Bonnar. He was pushed into the third round and looked less than fresh at the end of it despite dominating the fight. If he loses steam later on he will likely be swarmed on by Rua.

Prediction: Mauricio Rua by Submission


Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland

Ludo: This fight is an interesting matchup for anyone who was familiar with/enamored by the bantamweight division of the WEC. Wineland is a former champion, as is Faber in the weight class above. Faber brings a vast array of weapons to any fight including unorthodox striking, durability, speed, and an above average ground game. Wineland has some of the purest striking technique in the division and the power to go with it. His ground game leaves a little something to the imagination but that hasn't done him a total disservice thusfar. This could be either a very entertaining three round fight, or a very quick one that only further proves why Faber still has a place in this sport. I imagine Faber will come in looking to set up the clinch or the takedown after some brief exchanges to guage the timing of Wineland. After that I can see Faber putting Wineland on his back and working the submission shortly after.

Prediction: Urijah Faber by Submission


Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus

Ludo: Having ripped off six consecutive wins since his last loss to Gray Maynard, Jim Miller is in contention for the Lightweight title after Anthony Pettis. If he wants to keep his title aspirations alive he's going to have to go through Kamal Shalorus formerly of the WEC. Shalorus brings an olympic level wrestling pedigree while striking is his favorite thing to do. Miller should own a distinct advantage standing and in submissions should this fight find it's way to the mat. Kamal has shown a weakness to a stiff jab and striking technicality in the past but it doesn't stop him from walking through punches to land his own. Should Kamal wish to take this fight to the ground he should have little difficulty doing so, but the likelihood that he does this is slim. Durability for both fighters is above average. This should prove to be a hard fought battle by the end similarly to Millers fight with Gleison Tibau. In the end I think we will see Miller proving why his name is in the hat for a title shot.

Prediction: Jim Miller by Decision


Nate Marquardt vs. Dan Miller

Ludo: The aftermath of a scrapped bout between Nate Marquardt and Yoshihiro Akiyama has left us with Dan Miller replacing the Japanese superstar. Sadly for Miller, he did himself no favors in taking this fight on short notice. There are few area's Dan Miller can say he holds an edge over Nate, the only of which might be submissions but even there we can't be sure. Miller is primarily a choke and position grappler while Marquardt is a powerhouse who can strike and grapple with some of the best in the world. Striking is clearly an advantage for Marquardt both in technique and power. Grappling will depend on who is on top but overall the advantage would go to Miller by a very slim margin. Submissions are also very close but overall I'd give them to Marquardt based solely on his variety in using them whereas Miller has primarily been a choke artist(and not the kind that doesn't perform under pressure). I can't really see Marquardt falling into a choke, nor can I see him getting taken down and controlled repeatedly such as when he fought Chael Sonnen. It is likely we will see Miller forced to stand up and eventually see him wobbled or dropped before being followed and pounded out from the top.

Prediction: Nate Marquardt by TKO


Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic vs. Brendan Schaub

Ludo: I'm sure around this time last year when the TUF10 finals were being fought if you said one day Brendan Schaub would be a favorite to "Cro Cop" most people would have looked at you funny and laughed. However that is the reality this week and possibly for good reason. Mirko has looked as though he has lost the fire of late; His performance against the over friendly Pat Barry not withstanding. Schaub has only gotten better and better since losing to Roy Nelson. Beating Chris Tuchscherer and Gabriel Gonzalez in dominating fashion in the process. However he faces a much more potent striker this time in Mirko. While he may not be the man he used to be something tells Me he can still look like he knows what he's doing if the right circumstances present themselves. Overall grappling is a wash more or less, We haven't seen much of Schaubs abilities on the ground and we know Mirko isn't exactly fond of being there. Striking is split into speed, power, and technique. Striking Speed I'd give to Schaub right now. Striking Power is close, with Schaub being just a little more apt to lay someone out lately. Technique is Cro Cops by far. Speed has seldom been something one would say Cro Cop lacks, yet Schaub may be faster at this point. He has looked super potent of late while Mirko has looked lackluster at best. If your only as good as your last fight then all we have to go on is the fifteen minute conversation Cro Cop had with Frank Mir just before catching a knee in the face. This fight will likely be fought standing where Schaub pushes the pace and catches Cro Cop late in the second or third round once the Croation starts to lose hope.

Prediction: Brendan Schaub by TKO


Edson Barboza vs. Anthony Njokuani

Ludo: With an impressive muay thai/kickboxing record and a lethal standing attack, Edson Barboza could be one of the next big things in the UFC. He faces Anthony Njokuani in what should prove to be fireworks. With two muay thai specialists squaring off you know someone is going down eventually. Unfortunately for Njokuani I can see Barboza being a little too much for him. As far as striking I give the power and technical advantages to Barboza. On the ground the edge at least in experience has to go to Njokuani but not by his choosing. Barboza brings a perfect seven win record with him coming into this fight, five of which have been by knockout or submission in the first round. Njokuani has had some troubles oflate losing two of his last three however he could very well redeem himself here. Barboza may simply be too much though.

Prediction: Edson Barboza by TKO


Ricardo Almeida vs. Mike Pyle

Ludo: Two journeymen that have been around and done it all in mixed martial arts. Almeida who holds accolades in the ADCC as well as the UFC and PRIDE has fought as heavy as Light Heavyweight. Pyle is the last man who made beating Jon Fitch look possible if your name isn't GSP. One hails from the Gracie Jiu Jitsu stylings of Renzo Gracie while the other trains out of Team Xtreme Couture. Pyle's largest claim to fame in recent memory would be the derailment of John Hathaways hype train. Almeidas last outing had him choked from the front headlock position by Matt Hughes while attempting to avenge his mentor. As far as the Striking goes Pyle will have an advantage since Almeida never really went to great lengths to develop much of a striking game. Grappling however is just as big of an advantage for Almeida as striking is for Pyle. We have seen Pyle be submitted by far less skilled grapplers than Almeida. If this one hits the ground look for Almeida to use his size and skill to either sweep and or submit the man from Vegas.

Prediction: Ricardo Almeida by Submission


Kurt Pellegrino vs. Gleison Tibau

Ludo: Batman returns to face Gleison Tibau in a contest of lightweight wrestlers. Both men are coming in off losses yet this fight is the chance for redemption. Both own decent wrestling games. This is an overall fairly even matchup. Striking would have to go to Tibau without too heavy an advantage. Wrestling is about even while overall grappling goes to Pellegrino. Size could play a factor being that it's two wrestlers facing off and that goes to Gleison Tibau. I expect this fight to be anything but pretty. These two are no strangers to grinding wins that take everything out of a guy. It's likely that this fight is contested largely against the cage or on the mat with the clinch. If Tibau finds his way to the top though things could get interesting with Pellegrino trying to get out from under the bigger man.


Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian Loveland

Ludo: It's surprising to say that Joseph Benavidez won't have his fight seen on the broadcast but hopefully one of the fights ends quickly and we can view it anyway. He faces off against Ian Loveland, a well travelled wrestler out of Team Quest. Benavidez likely has Loveland outmatched in almost every aspect of things save for overall size and power. Loveland saw action against Tyler Toner at the TUF12 Finale, filling in for Leonard Garcia. Benavidez has only ever been defeated twice, both times by current Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz. Benavidez should prove the more technical striker, though he may have less punching power. Wrestling should be almost even, but the Team Alpha Male product hasn't had many problems persevering thusfar. Overall grappling should be an advantage for Benavidez as well. The only disadvantages I can see for Benavidez are size and overall power. However little Joe uses his limited reach well and should have no problems asserting himself here. The pace could be the killer for Loveland, as Benavidez likes to work at a pace that would make Diego Sanchez choke like a smoker in a marathon.

Prediction: Joseph Benavidez by Decision


Post your own predictions below or Here!

Nice job.

GREAT POSTER

thats a sweet ass poster!!!
whos this freakzilla guy? i kinda like Jamal more, he's the good aussie

I've taken a couple events off but I'll add mine for sure in the next couple days

killerofchicken wrote:

thats a sweet ass poster!!!
whos this freakzilla guy? i kinda like Jamal more, he's the good aussie

Lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll. Split personality.

killerofchicken wrote:

thats a sweet ass poster!!!
whos this freakzilla guy? i kinda like Jamal more, he's the good aussie

Thanks Killer

Something to watch out for would be a Shogun leglock.

Jamal wrote:

killerofchicken wrote:

thats a sweet ass poster!!!
whos this freakzilla guy? i kinda like Jamal more, he's the good aussie

Thanks Killer

LMAO! i want 2 accounts!

killerofchicken wrote:

Jamal wrote:

killerofchicken wrote:

thats a sweet ass poster!!!
whos this freakzilla guy? i kinda like Jamal more, he's the good aussie

Thanks Killer

LMAO! i want 2 accounts!

You're lucky we gave you 1.

HEY HEY HEY! play nice

I think Jones will be able to use his reach and speed and I think he lands a shot that hurts Shogun fairly early in the fight, I'm going with round 2. I think Jones will hurt him, jump on him and force the ref to step in. I'm taking Jones by TKO in the 2nd.
Now I could very well be wrong on this. I can see Shogun taking whatever shots slip through and just pressing on and finding the chin of Jones.

I think Windland will be game for this fight. I don't think Faber will finish him. I'm even thinking maybe Faber loses a round. I think the judges score card for this fight will look like this 29-28, 29-28, 30-27 in favor of Faber. At the end of the day I think Faber will be just too much for Wineland to overcome. But I think this will be the FOTN winner.

Miller vs Kamal might not be the most entertaining fight on the card, but I think it will be compeitive. I think Miller wins the UD.

killerofchicken wrote:

Jamal wrote:

killerofchicken wrote:

thats a sweet ass poster!!!
whos this freakzilla guy? i kinda like Jamal more, he's the good aussie

Thanks Killer

LMAO! i want 2 accounts!

Lolllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll.

Can't wait to see Barbosa agian. That dude also has wicked takedowns. Not sure about his submission game though. Should be a sick fight.

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2011/3/16/2053843/ufc-128-pre-fight-press-conference-video

about to start.

killerofchicken wrote:

Jamal wrote:

killerofchicken wrote:

thats a sweet ass poster!!!
whos this freakzilla guy? i kinda like Jamal more, he's the good aussie

Thanks Killer

LMAO! i want 2 accounts!

I know what we need around here...

LMAO, does anyone else know about that?

This guy

Bones says, “I get in their head when I look to the side” in a staredown. No.

I love how when he did that today Shogun turned around to see what he was looking at. Classic.

GDPofDRC wrote:

Bones says, “I get in their head when I look to the side” in a staredown. No.

I love how when he did that today Shogun turned around to see what he was looking at. Classic.

LOL, kinda makes Jones look dumb if you ask me

LOL that is classic.

The contrast is stark. Shogun interview with R7 Sports.

Q: Do you consider Jones to be the hardest opponent of your career?

Shogun : that’s hard to say. Jones is a good fighter, but I will only be able to answer that on the 19th, after the fight. In theory I cannot say. I have taken on great fighters, I’d say he’s among the best.

Q: who’s the toughest fighter [you have faced]?

Shogun : that’s hard to say. I have faced many great fighters, [Ricardo] Arona, [Alistair] Overeem, [Rogério] Minotouro, Lyoto [Machida].

Q: Jones has been provoking you a lot, but you don’t talk much about him. Is this a strategy of yours?

Shogun : that depends on the personality of each fighter. I like to stay calm going in the fight, because if I say I’m going to do something in the fight, that I’m going to win, that I’m going to kill, I would go in with the obligation of doing that in the fight. I prefer to be calm going in, with no commitments. But that depends on the personality of each fighter, if he likes to talk that’s his problem. I respect him for that, each one has their personalities.

Q: Can you use what he says as something positive?

Shogun: Yes, it gives me more motivation, for sure.

Q: Jones has even stated that he could submit you, that you’re a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and even though he’s a white belt. What can you say about that?

Shogun: He’s actually good on the ground. He comes from wrestling, he has a good base. Even though he’s been training Jiu-Jitsu for a small amount of time, he had already been training wrestling and submissions. A belt is something very relative.

Q: Still, it can’t be compared to your ground game...

Shogun: I hope not (laughs)

Q: Doesn’t these types of things get you more fired up, more nervous?

Shogun: sure it does. The guys are telling me he said a bunch of things and that can only motivate me more. I am experienced and these types of things don’t get to me, they don’t hurt [my game]. They didn’t get to me when I was younger let alone now. I try to take motivation out of everything, and that’s something that helps me.

Q: Do you think his inexperience can leave him more vulnerable?

Shogun: I don’t think so. He’s not that young at 23. He is secure in his fights and got to where he is with merits. I don’t think his age will hurt him in this phase of [the game].

Q: But you have 10 more fights than he does in MMA, you are much more experienced...

Shogun: It’s true that my experience influences a bit, because I might be able to dictate the fight in a certain way. But I believe that MMA is a very broad sport that encompasses all styles. I think his experience in wrestling works for him.

Q: Do you have something new to present to Jon Jones [in this fight]?

Shogun: he’s someone who’s been renewing his Muay Thai during fights, but I don’t think he’ll have something new. His game is that and mine is this, there isn’t much to change. I fight for 10 years and it’s not now that my game will change, and neither will his. I think he’ll go [to his bread and butter], which is wrestling, that’s what I think.

Q: so you’re expecting him to avoid the game standing and go directly to Ground n’ Pound?

Shogun: I think he’ll exchange a bit standing before trying to take me down, for Ground n’ Pound. I think he’ll want to exchange a bit, so he won’t give his game away.

Q: Recently Jones said that he’d fight Rashad Evans, his friend. What’s your stance on fighting teammates?

Shogun: I think that’s relative [to each fighter], our training sessions are very close to a real fight, so it almost becomes a reality. But to fight in front of the fans and in front of cameras, it really isn’t a good thing, you have to take your friend in consideration. But real friends we only have a few, and most of my friends are in my team. The only person I wouldn’t fight is Wanderlei Silva. Actually Lyoto is a comrade of mine, but I fought him, I never thought about not fighting.

Q: How do you see the growth of MMA in Brazil?

Shogun: I think MMA is the fastest growing sport in the world for a few years. In Brazil, it got a good expansion now, it grew a lot. If it continues this way, it will soon become the second sport in the country. I am very happy with the evolution of MMA, today people see it with [different eyes], as a real sport. I can only thank you guys, in the media, that took part in this.

Q: do you want to fight at UFC Rio?

Shogun: Of course I think about fighting. It’s a big dream of mine, to fight in front of my Brazilian fans. But for now my mind is focused on my fight with Jon Jones. After that I’ll see what I’m going to do.

Shogun is a class act. I won't be too disapointed if wins. As long as he crushes Rashad next.

This is like good vs evil. The old guard from Pride standing tall and smashing the young up and coming arrogant fake from the new generation. If you aren't with Shogun, you're with the trolls