MMA Databombs

Good info.

It amazes me how many fighters, after taking someone's back, don't work strictly to get both leg hooks sunk to attempt a rear naked. A lot of the times it doesn't look like a defensive strategy that prevents it, just lack of awareness from said fighter in the dominant position.

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

Last week, we started our series on UFC strikers by breaking down the smallest division in key striking metrics. This week, in time for the Featherweight title fight between Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar at UFC 156, we’ll look at the 145’ers. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included below.

The Winners

Sniper Award: Cub Swanson
has been on a roll lately and tops out as the division’s most accurate
striker, landing 37% of his power head strike attempts. For perspective,
that’s bordering on Anderson Silva-type
accuracy, at least statistically. This has helped Swanson win three
straight in the UFC, all by (T)KO, and pick up two straight Knockout of
the Night bonuses.

Energizer Bunny Award: Southpaw Erik Koch has more than doubled the striking output of his opponents. But that wasn’t enough to stop the ground Hellbows from Ricardo Lamas on last Saturday’s FOX card. There’s no doubt about Koch’s skills, he’ll just have to wait longer to test them against the current champ.

Biggest Ball(s) Award: Andy Ogle
may cry a lot when he’s away from home, but no one should doubt the
size of his, ahem, heart. Though he dropped a split decision in his UFC
debut against Akira Corassani, he managed to knock down the Swede
despite landing only two solid strikes to the head. He’d better improve
his accuracy and pull the trigger more often if he hopes to get past the
similarly gun-shy yet powerful Josh Grispi at UFC on FUEL 7 next month. Other notable featherweights with knockdown power include Koch, Aldo, Dennis Siver and Dennis Bermudez.

The Losers

Swing and a Miss Award: Recent UFC debutant Yaotzin Meza
failed to land a single power head strike on Chad Mendes during his
two-minute KO loss at UFC on FX 6. Other guys also needing some accuracy
improvement include Hacran Dias and Rani Yahya, who each miss nine
times out of ten.

Smallest Ball(s): 22 of the 49 Featherweights shown here have yet to score a knockdown, but Nik Lentz and Nam Phan have failed to do so despite over two hours of total Octagon fight time each.

Starnes Award for Inaction: Josh “The Gentleman” Clopton
threw a total of 33 standing strikes over three full rounds at the TUF
14 Finale against Steven Siler, who more than doubled Clopton’s output.
That’s barely two strikes per minute. Clopton was heard politely saying,
“no, after you!” before each exchange.

Also Noteworthy

According to the data, Jose Aldo matches pace with his opponents, but
is more accurate, and has clear knockout power. Frankie Edgar*,
however, doesn’t have the same accuracy or power, and is in fact below
average for the division by those metrics. We’ll see how things play out
this weekend at UFC 156 in what Dana White is billing as the first
“Super Fight” of the year. Also coming up on February 16th, we’ll see two of the featherweight division’s best, Cub Swanson and Dustin Poirier, face off for a potential contender spot.

Next week we’ll look at the Bantamweights in time to see how Renan Barao and Michael McDonald stack up with the rest of the division. Any predictions on who will take the awards?

How the Analysis Works:

In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more
multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of
the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These
are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can
summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three
fundamental, offensive metrics:

Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs
to the head), where the average for UFC Flyweights is about 25%.
Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most
likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And in
order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy that
throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat. The
accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s
striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division as
we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are
higher in the graph.

Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that
outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly
correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is
dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of
standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s
opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted,
including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the
graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters
with superior pace appear further to the right.

Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown
is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has
connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of
knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head
strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of
the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the
bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small
bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their
Zuffa fights.

* The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through
2012, through UFC 155. Many of these fighters (such as Frankie Edgar)
competed in other higher weight classes, but for the purposes of this
analysis, that data was still included and analyzed.

By [b]Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics
[/b]

Last week we broke down the UFC Featherweight division
in key striking metrics. This week we’ll look at the largest
(numerically) UFC division, the Lightweights. A full explanation of the
chart and variables is included at the end of this post.

The Winners

Sniper Award: Daron Cruickshank
finally showed off his striking skills in his second UFC appearance
against Henry Martinez on the UFC on FOX 5 card in Seattle. With nearly
50% accuracy, he looked like he was practicing on a heavy bag before
mercifully dropping an iron-chinned Martinez with a head kick KO. Interestingly, the “Detroit Superstar” is set to face another division sniper, John Makdessi, in March at UFC 158.

Energizer Bunny Award: Tim Means
is two wins into his UFC career, and has almost doubled the standing
output of his two opponents. He also maintained good accuracy and scored
two knockdowns in those performances.

Biggest Ball(s) Award: Melvin Guillard has been punching above his weight for a long time in the UFC. To date Guillard has 12 knockdowns, putting him 3^rd all-time in the UFC behind Anderson Silva and Chuck Liddell. Not bad for a lightweight.

The Losers

Swing and a Miss Award: Justin Salas has landed just 15% of
his power head strikes in his first two UFC fights and appears at the
bottom of the graphed fighters. But (dis)honorable mention also goes to
Mitch “Danger Zone” Clarke, who is 0 for 47 in power head strikes
through nearly 25 minutes of Octagon time. Unfortunately, because Clarke
was so far into the danger zone, I couldn’t fit him onto the graph.

Smallest Ball(s): 15 of the 55 lightweight fighters graphed have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa appearances, not an unusual number for a lower weight division. But Mark Bocek and Thiago Tavares
have failed to do so despite over two hours of Octagon time each. Given
that both fighters tend to be outpaced by their opponents, perhaps they
need to try planting their feet.

Starnes Award for Inaction: Reza Madadi has had solid
accuracy through his first two UFC appearances, but had less than half
the striking output of his opponents. He’ll need to step on the gas if
he doesn’t want to drop close decisions in the future.

Also Noteworthy

In a division made famous by strong wrestlers, it’s no surprise that
the top ranked fighters aren’t pure strikers. But keep an eye on Anthony Pettis, who will bring a striking advantage to his recently announced featherweight fight against current champion Jose Aldo. Aldo has had sharper striking than most of his opponents to date, so this will be an interesting challenge.

Despite his recent UD loss to Benson Henderson, Nate Diaz shows impressive accuracy and the ability to push the pace — at least, when he has vision in both eyes. He’s down but not out.

For those counting red bubbles, the Lightweight division has a high
27% share of left-handers, about three times the normal rate for the
population.

The lightweight division is often thought to be the deepest in the
UFC, but we’ll have to see how the new additions play out against
tried-and-true veterans.

How the Analysis Works:

In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more
multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of
the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These
are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can
summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three
fundamental, offensive metrics:

Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs
to the head), where the average for UFC Lightweights is about 26%.
Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most
likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And in
order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy that
throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat. The
accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s
striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division.
This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the
graph.

Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that
outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly
correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is
dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of
standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s
opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted,
including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the
graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters
with superior pace appear further to the right.

Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown
is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has
connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of
knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head
strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of
the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the
bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small
bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their
Zuffa fights.

The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through 2012,
including UFC 155. Some of these fighters competed in other weight
classes or at catchweight, but for the purposes of this analysis, that
data was still included and analyzed. Because of the size of the
division, fighters with only one fight were not included in the graph.

By [b]Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics[/b]

It’s almost time for the interim bantamweight championship fight between Renan Barao and Michael McDonald.
But first, let’s examine the whole UFC bantamweight division in several
key striking metrics. As one of the youngest divisions with quite a few
newcomers, there were several chart busters who have performed either
really well in a certain metric, or in Mike Easton’s
case, really poorly, so those outliers are noted. Usually those
fighters will regress towards the mean, but they’re worth keeping an eye
on. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the
end of this post.

As a group, the 135’ers are the hardest to hit, as illustrated by
their lowest power head striking accuracy of any UFC division. But they
manage to maintain a high pace of action, with the second-highest
significant strike attempts per minute average. (Flyweights have the
highest.) So which fighters get the awards in this frenzied group?

The Winners

Sniper Award: Rangy southpaw Alex Caceres
leads the division with 48% power head striking accuracy. Though he has
yet to score a knockdown in the UFC, the Bruce Lee superfan has
definitely put on entertaining fights including sharp striking, rapid
pace, and some very retro body suits.

Energizer Bunny Award: Johnny Bedford
has been outstriking his UFC opponents more than 2:1 on his way to two
finishes. Bedford’s size has been an advantage for him in one of the
smallest weight classes, and we’ll see if he can continue his streak.

Biggest Ball(s) Award: In addition to outworking his
opponents, double award winner Johnny Bedford is 2-0 in the UFC with two
knockout finishes. But an honorable mention also goes to knockout
machine Michael “Mayday” McDonald, who has landed four knockdowns during
his 5-0 streak with Zuffa. McDonald gets his biggest test yet against
higher volume striker and interim champ Renan Barao, in an interesting
contrast of power and finesse.

The Losers

Swing and a Miss Award: Mike Easton has only landed 9% of
his power head strikes, and would appear as the lowest on the graph…if
we went that far down. However, (dis)honorable mention also goes to
newcomer Motonobu Tezuka who missed all 20 of his power head strike
attempts in his UFC debut against Alex Caceres. Tezuka faces Vaughan Lee
next.

Smallest Ball(s): Eight of the 27 bantamweight fighters graphed have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa appearances, not an unusual number for a lower weight division. But sidelined champion Dominick Cruz has not yet done so despite 170 minutes of fight time in the WEC and UFC.

Starnes Award for Inaction: Vaughan Lee has been getting
outpaced through his first three UFC appearances, despite solid accuracy
and power. He’ll have a chance to turn things around on his home turf
in England against the inaccurate Tezuka.

Also Noteworthy

Champions Dominick Cruz and Renan Barao have similar performance
profiles, suggesting that in smaller weight classes keeping a high pace
is more important than landing bombs. Barao matches up favorably with
Cruz, which should give the incumbent champ some problems when he
returns from his injury hiatus.

Two accurate strikers, Urijah Faber and Ivan Menjivar, will face off at UFC 157. Faber will be more likely to counter, but also has the heavier hands.

How the Analysis Works:

In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more
multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of
the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These
are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can
summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three
fundamental, offensive metrics:

Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs
to the head), where the average for UFC Bantamweights is about 20%.
Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most
likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And in
order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy that
throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat. The
accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s
striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division as
we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are
higher in the graph.

Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that
outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly
correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is
dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of
standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s
opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted,
including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the
graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters
with superior pace appear further to the right.

Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown
is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has
connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of
knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head
strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of
the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the
bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small
bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their
Zuffa fights.

The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through 2012,
including UFC 155. Some of these fighters competed in other weight
classes or at catchweight, but for the purposes of this analysis, that
data was still included and analyzed. Fighters with only one fight were
not included in the graph.

Stat of the Day: Average ranked height at each weight division (Updated)

We did a post back in September, on the Average ranked height at each weight division.

It’s probably “too soon” to start tracking trends, but I thought I
would give it a shot, to see if the UFC’s involvement of smaller
divisions is causing them to get “bigger”. We will also add in the new
Strawweight division.

.

Division	Height	Top 50	Diff	Top 50 Diff from 9/12	Tallest/Shortest
Heavyweight+	6’2.0″	6’3.0″	+1.0″	+0.2″	7.0″ – [#10] Stefan Struve 5’9″ – 5 Tied (Monson, Komkin, Brents, Leniu, O. Sanchez)
Light Heavyweight	6’1.1″	6’1.1″	=	-0.4″	6’7″ – [#170] Malik Merad 5’8″ – 4 Tied (Filho, DeAnda, Latifi, Kim)
Middleweight	6’0.0″	6’0.4″	+0.4″	-0.2″	6’6″ – 3 Tied (Grove, Barnatt, Ling) 5’7″ – 5 Tied (Howard, Hernandez, Tapusoa, Martin, Graceffo
Welterweight	5’10.8″	5’11.2″	+0.4″	+0.3″	6’4″ – [#344] Corey Hill 5’5″ – [#390] Lukasz Chlewicki
Lightweight	5’9.4″	5’9.3″	-0.1″	=	6’3″ – [#160] Zorobabel Moreira, [#227] Jose Figueora 5’0″ – [#494] Gilberto Aguilar
Featherweight	5’8.1″	5’7.5″	-0.6″	-0.3″	6’4″ – [#182] Will Chope 5’1″ – [#366] Pablo Veloquio
Bantamweight	5’6.9″	5’6.8″	-0.1″	+0.1″	6’1″ – [#155] Daniel Aguirre, [#187] Patrick Reeves 5’3″ – 3 Tied (Killon, Cavalcante de Oliveira, Ogikubo)
Flyweight	5’5.2″	5’4.8″	-0.4″	-0.2″	5’9″ – [#14] Will Campuzano, [#93] Ricky Calatayud 5’1″ – [#27] Nate Williams
Strawweight*	5’4.7″	5’4.7″	NA	NA	5’8″ – [#1] Mitsuhisa Sunabe, [#5] Mikihito Yamagami 5’2″ – [#2] Rambaa Somdet, [#7] Noboru Tahara

So, it may have been too soon to take a second look at this. Since
September, we don’t see much consistent movement either way between the
average top 50 height. The most interesting thing in this table is that
there is a 5’0″ Lightweight out there!




Posted on February 19, 2013 by jcs

By [b]Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics[/b]

With several fights among top contenders in the Light Heavyweight division over the next few events — including Dan Henderson vs. Lyoto Machida at UFC 157
this weekend — I’ve shifted focus to the bigger boys of the UFC. As a
group, the 205’ers have a lot more power than the lower weight
divisions, and they’ve recorded a total of 43 knockdowns between them
during Zuffa competition.

A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the end
of this post. For historical perspective, I’ve also kept some familiar
names who recently retired. So which fighters get the awards in this
group of sluggers?

The Winners

Sniper Award: Another Rangy Southpaw tops the accuracy list for a division. This time it’s Frenchman Cyrille Diabaté, who has landed 57% of his power head strikes. Unfortunately, the “Snake” might be on the shelf a while after tearing a calf muscle against Jimi Manuwa. At 6’ 6” and with a ridiculous 81” reach, Diabaté has wins over Michael Bisping and Rick Roufus from back in his professional kickboxing days.
Now competing in the UFC, the 39-year old striker’s days may be
numbered, though he’s stated he wants to compete long enough to
participate in a UFC event in Paris. Honorable mentions go to Fabio Maldonado, unsurprisingly a formerly undefeated professional boxer, and also new UFC contender Glover Teixeira.

Energizer Bunny Award: Young Swede Alexander Gustafsson
has more than doubled the standup striking pace of his opponents, a
common characteristic of fighters successful at using their size to
control the cage. The 6’5” modern day Viking takes a six-fight win streak into his home turf showdown with top Strikeforce import Gegard Mousasi, in a fight that could have title implications. We’ll see if he can push the pace against an opponent closer to his own age.

Biggest Ball(s) Award: Another Strikeforce import, Ovince St. Preux,
has dropped 4 opponents in his Strikeforce run, with each landed power
head strike having a 17% chance of causing a knockdown. Honorable
mentions for high knockdown rates also go to Brian Stann and Lyoto Machida.
Both Stann and Machida face other credible power strikers in their next
fights, Wanderlei Silva and Dan Henderson, respectively. Thank you Joe
Silva!

The Losers

Swing and a Miss Award: Vinny Magalhaes holds the dubious honor of the lowest power head striking accuracy in the division, at just 10%. Wisely, he has called out Phil Davis, who has the second lowest accuracy. They’ll face off at UFC 159 in what will either be a high-level grappling chess match, or a really sloppy standup affair.

Smallest Ball(s) Award: Only five of the 35 fighters shown in the chart have failed to score a knockdown in Zuffa competition. But Chael Sonnen
has yet to do so despite 169.1 minutes of Octagon time, and 42 landed
power head strikes while standing. If only I hadn’t named this award…oh
man, you get the idea.
Normally competing at 185 lbs, Sonnen’s out of his league at 205 lbs
when it comes to knockdown power, and will likely not have a chance to
prove otherwise against the rangy Jon Jones in
April. A (dis)honorable mention also goes to the aforementioned Phil
Davis and Vinny Magalhaes, who have equally questionable power.

Starnes Award for Inaction: Gian Villante
went 3-2 in Strikeforce during 2011 and 2012, including a run of three
wins in a row to finish out his career under the promotion. But overall
he’s only attempted half as many standing strikes as his opponents.
He’ll be facing a heavy handed — and generally much less gun shy —
Ovince St. Preux at UFC 159 when each man makes his UFC debut.

Also Noteworthy

Division champion Jon Jones may not be popping up in the upper
quadrant of our assessment, but with the longest reach in the UFC, Jones
has been intelligently creating distance and controlling the pace of
his fights. Overall he’s outpaced his opponents by almost 40% while
maintaining benchmark accuracy – and he did all that against some of the
best in the business.

Trailing the herd is an impressive group of UFC veterans, reminding
us that MMA is more than striking, but also that there’s a new breed of
more accurate (and much more active) strikers moving up the ranks.
Evans, Couture, Henderson, Hamill, and Ortiz all have/had a solid
wrestling base, but struggled to keep up the pace against their
late-career opponents. Judges are influenced by pace less so than
accuracy, so perhaps it’s time some of these older fighters evolve their game. Furthermore, seeing how favorably Nogueira stacks up with Evans, perhaps we should all admit the recent betting line for them was a little off.

Coming up this weekend, we’ll see division standout Lyoto Machida
take on Dan Henderson at UFC 157. Machida’s accurate flurries match
favorably with Henderson sub-par striking skills, but no one doubts the
power of the H-Bomb. Should be interesting, and there could be
fireworks.

The following weekend we’ll see Brian Stann return to 205 lbs to face the Axe-Murderer, Wanderlei Silva in yet another matchup between high powered sluggers. The pace favors Stann, though both can throw bombs.

Only three divisions left to look at, and we’re saving some good ones
for last. Coming soon, we’ll see how the two longest-reigning UFC
champions stack up in their divisions. And then to wrap it all up, the
heavyweights.

How the Analysis Works:

In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more
multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of
the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These
are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can
summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three
fundamental, offensive metrics:

Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs
to the head), where the average for UFC Light Heavyweights is about
25%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the
most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And
in order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy
that throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat.
The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a
fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single
division as we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate
fighters are higher in the graph.

Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that
outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly
correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is
dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of
standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s
opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted,
including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the
graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters
with superior pace appear further to the right.

Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown
is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has
connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of
knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head
strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of
the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the
bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small
bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their
Zuffa fights.

The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through 2012,
including UFC 155. Some of these fighters competed in other weight
classes or at catchweight, but for the purposes of this analysis, that
data was still included and analyzed. Fighters with only one fight or
less than 15 minutes of fight time were not included in the graph.

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

The UFC Middleweight division has long been ruled by the most feared and successful striker in MMA history, champion Anderson Silva.
And perhaps more so than in smaller divisions, striking has been a good
predictor of success at Middleweight. So examining this division in
core striking performance metrics should provide good insight to how
fighters will fare against each other in standup. A full explanation of
the chart and variables is included at the end of this post.

But first, let’s see how the whole division stacks up against each other, and look at the winners and losers.

The Winners

Sniper Award: Two fights into his UFC career, cross-trained Dutchman Michael Kuiper has landed 49% of his power head strikes. We’ll see if he can maintain this in his upcoming matchup with veteran brawler Tom Lawlor in Sweden.
Honorable mention must be given to Anderson Silva who has maintained
40% accuracy over his lengthy and dominant career. And also noteworthy
is Italian boxer, Alessio Sakara, currently on the bench for health reasons.

Energizer Bunny Award: Strikeforce veteran Roger Gracie
has been almost doubling the striking output of opponents on his way to
a string of submission wins in typical Gracie fashion. Some grapplers
use strikes to set up their mat-work, others don’t. Honorable mentions
go to former champ Rich Franklin, and Strikeforce champ and crossover contender Luke Rockhold, who each tend to outpace their opponents by over 80%.

Biggest Ball(s) Award: The UFC record holder for
knockdowns is Anderson Silva. He is literally the best in the business
at dropping dudes. Statistically, when Silva lands a power head strike,
there’s a 27% chance it will result in a knockdown, which is just
ridiculous. These skills have won him Knockout of the Night honors seven
times in the UFC.

The Losers

Swing and a Miss Award: Jason MacDonald
and the aforementioned Roger Gracie only land 10% of their power head
strikes. Perhaps that’s ok, since both guys are grappling specialists.
It remains to be seen with Gracie, but MacDonald’s lack of standup
skills has put him on the wrong end of Knockout of the Night awards in
the past.

Starnes Award for Inaction: While Michael Kuiper has
been very accurate so far, he also been very much a counter striker. He
only had half the total striking output of his opponents to date. Some
notable grapplers also show up on the far left, like Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza and Rousimar Palhares.
Jacare will have his hand full with the streaking Cypriot, Costa
Philippou, while Palhares is still recovering from a beatdown from
bomber Hector Lombard.

Smallest Ball(s) Award: Only 12 of the fighters
shown have yet to score a knockdown in the UFC. But Jason MacDonald has
yet to do so despite over 80 minutes of Octagon time.

Also Noteworthy

The high frequency of the red bubbles shows how successful Southpaws
have been in the UFC Middleweight division. Twelve of the 44 fighters
shown in the graph are left-handed, about three times the baseline rate
for the population at large.

The Middleweights also pack a punch. The fighters shown above have
recorded 114 knockdowns in their time in UFC and Strikeforce cages.
Amazingly, Anderson Silva owns 17 of those.

Like other divisions, Middleweights show the same tradeoff between
volume and accuracy. Counter-strikers tend to be more accurate, but must
sacrifice volume while evading opponents, which is dangerous on judges’
cards. And high volume, forward pressing fighters tend not to land with
as high accuracy.

This weekend at UFC on Fuel TV 8, watch for a clash between the heavy-handed Hector Lombard, and seasoned counter-striker Yushin Okami.
If Lombard wants to test Okami’s chin, he’ll have to improve his
movement to cut off the cage and get close. The matchup will certainly
have implications on the UFC rankings for the division.

Only two divisions left to look at. Next week we’ll see how Georges St-Pierre stacks up with the rest of UFC Welterweights, and then we’ll look at the big boys.

How the Analysis Works:

In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more
multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of
the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These
are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can
summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three
fundamental, offensive metrics:

Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs
to the head), where the average for UFC Middleweights is about 26%.
Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most
likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And in
order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy that
throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat. The
accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s
striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division as
we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are
higher in the graph.

Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that
outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly
correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is
dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of
standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s
opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted,
including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the
graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters
with superior pace appear further to the right.

Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown
is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has
connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of
knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head
strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of
the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the
bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small
bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their
Zuffa fights.

The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through 2012, including UFC 155.
Some of these fighters competed in other weight classes or at
catchweight, but for the purposes of this analysis, that data was still
included and analyzed. Fighters with only one fight or less than 15
minutes of fight time were not included in the graph.

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics


We’ve saved the biggest fighters for last in the striking assessment series. Heavyweights end 57% of fights by (T)KO, far more than any other weight class. They also have the highest average power head striking accuracy, possibly because defense is harder when you’re that big.

So let’s see how the whole division stacks up against each other, then look at the winners and losers in each category. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the end of this post.

THE WINNERS


Sniper Award: Relative newcomer Shawn Jordan has been a highly accurate striker to date, though he has lacked knockdown power. So let’s focus on the trio of Pat Barry, Dave Herman, and Mark Hunt, who each have four or more UFC appearances and have maintained power head striking accuracy of 38% or more. These are big guys who can also hit their target.

Energizer Bunny Award: Monstrous southpaw Todd Duffee has almost quadrupled the striking output of his opponents with three fights to date in the Octagon, none of which have gone the distance. But with far greater Octagon experience, veterans Cheick Kongo and former champion Junior Dos Santos have managed to almost double the volume of opponents, all while maintain accuracy well above the division average.

Biggest Ball(s) Award: Punch for punch, Shane Carwin has landed the most knockdowns in the fewest strikes. Despite low accuracy and pace, Carwin packed enough power to finish his first four UFC fights all by (T)KO. Like a mortar in high winds, Carwin doesn’t land on target very often. But when he does, he destroys what he hits.

THE LOSERS


Swing and a Miss Award: With just 12% power head striking accuracy, the recently retired Christian Morecraft is the least accurate heavyweight striker on the list. Though Shane Carwin is a close second, he has made the most of the shots he’s landed. Morecraft outworked opponents by more than 30%, but under-landed them in the long run.

Starnes Award for Inaction: Former kickboxer Alistair Overeem may have seemed invincible prior to his knockout loss to Antonio Silva, but he certainly didn’t press the action inside the MMA cage. Opponents outworked the Reem by throwing more than double his standing strike volume.

Smallest Ball(s) Award: Only three heavyweights shown here have failed to score a knockdown in UFC/Strikeforce competition. But Shawn Jordan has failed to do so in 56 minutes of Octagon time to date. But Jordan did manage to finish two opponents by strikes, showing he’s got power on the ground. Morecraft, however, failed to score a knockdown in four UFC appearances, losing three of those fights by KO himself — so maybe his retirement from competition was a good thing after all.

Also Noteworthy…


Heavyweights hit hard, and collectively the group shown in the graph has scored 82 knockdowns in their fights through 2012. We’re just three months into 2013 and already fighters like Bigfoot Silva and Mark Hunt are putting in performances that will boost their striking assessment position the next time around.

The matchmakers have made sure to keep the UFC’s biggest sluggers booked for future shows. First, Matt Mitrione will take on Philip De Fries at this weekend’s UFC on Fuel TV 9: Mousasi vs. Latifi card. The following week Travis Browne will make his comeback against Gabriel Gonzaga on the TUF 17 Finale card. Then on FOX on April 20th, Daniel Cormier will make his UFC debut against former champion Frank Mir. Not to mention Kongo vs. Nelson at UFC 159. And that’s just the matchups in April. In May we’ll get Junior Dos Santos vs. Mark Hunt, and see a title on the line with the Velasquez-Silva rematch. Bottom line: expect some fresh highlight reel knockouts from the UFC this spring.

How the Analysis Works:


In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:

Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs to the head), where the average for UFC Heavyweights is about 28%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And in order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy that throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division as we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.

Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.

Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.

The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through 2012, including UFC 155.




By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics


With what some are calling the “Welterweight Card” at UFC 158 just a week away, it’s time to assess the UFC Welterweight Division in critical striking metrics. In addition to the long-awaited showdown between reigning champ Georges St. Pierre and Nick Diaz, there’s four more 170 pounders all in the title hunt. So a lot of questions will be answered in this division in one night, and it would help to put some of those in context first.

Let’s see how the whole division stacks up against each other, then look at the winners and losers in each category. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the bottom of this article.

The Winners


Sniper Award: Veteran Nate Marquardt makes his Octagon return at UFC 158 boasting a best in class 40% accuracy in power head striking. He’ll need it against southpaw Jake Ellenberger, who is pretty accurate himself at 32%. Honorable mention goes to the gritty Matt Brown who recently put his standup skills under the bright lights of the UFC on FOX show, knocking out Mike Swick, who is indeed “quick.”

Energizer Bunny Award: Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson is just two fights into his young UFC career, with one award winning knockout to his credit, and one grueling lesson learned from Matt Brown. But so far, Wonderboy has outstruck opponents in standup striking by more than two to one. Ditto for another fast working newcomer, Chris Clements.

Biggest Ball(s) Award: Brazilian Erick Silva has been wrecking dudes, getting questionable disqualifications, or winning fight night bonuses in each of his four Octagon appearances. Most pundits are high on Silva’s potential, despite a loss to a far more experienced Jon Fitch. Silva is set to face another standout striker, John Hathaway, at the UFC on Fuel 10 card in June. Honorable mention goes to Thiago Alves and Nate Marquardt who lead the division in total knockdowns, with 10 and nine respectively.

The Losers


Swing and a Miss Award: With 45 minutes of fight time in the UFC so far, it seems David Mitchell is still trying to find his range. Mitchell has the division lowest power head striking accuracy at a chart-busting 9%. Historically a submission specialist, Mitchell was able to rebound recently with a win over Simeon Thoreson in a loser leave town matchup.

Starnes Award for Inaction: Since British fighter John Maguire has thrown strikes with a favorable 38% accuracy, he may want to try throwing a few more. Maguire has been outpaced by opponents nearly two to one in his first four UFC appearances, splitting those fights two and two.

Smallest Ball(s) Award: Of the 52 fighters charted above, 14 have yet to score a knockdown in the UFC or Strikeforce. But grappling specialists Demian Maia and Jake Shields have failed to do so despite over two hours of fight time logged. Maia has actually landed 53 power head strikes on opponents (out of 272 attempts) without getting anyone to drop. Opponents facing grapplers with poor accuracy and even worse power can resort to a sprawl and brawl strategy, while these grappling specialists should remember the first “M” in MMA.

Also Noteworthy


The high frequency of the red bubbles shows how successful Southpaws have been in the UFC Welterweight division. Thirteen of the 52 fighters shown in the graph are left-handed, more than twice the baseline rate for the general population.

Like other divisions, Welterweights show the same tradeoff between volume and accuracy. Counter-strikers tend to be more accurate, but must sacrifice volume while evading opponents, which is dangerous on judges’ cards. And high volume, forward pressing fighters tend not to land with as high accuracy. But those who break the mold combining accuracy with pace control are surely fighters to keep an eye on.

This includes GSP training partner Rory MacDonald, who is coming off a lopsided victory over BJ Penn, and now has his sights set on top ranked opponents. But also watch for British striker John Hathaway, who is 7-1 in the Octagon since 2009 and scheduled to face the dangerous young gun Erick Silva in June. Let’s hope they keep that one standing.

At UFC 158 we’ll see heavy-handed and accurate strikers Nate Marquardt and Jake Ellenberger square off in a fight that will definitely affect the Welterweight rankings. We’ll also see Johny Hendricks and his blazing fast left hand come after the technical, yet inaccurate Carlos Condit in what will surely cement a title shot for Hendricks with a victory.

And let’s not forget the GSP-Diaz matchup. Their historical performance suggests that Diaz generally controls standup exchanges and outpaces his opponents. But St-Pierre is the more accurate and slightly heavier handed striker. Though not shown here, the key will be GSP’s evasiveness (his head striking defense is excellent) traded off with his chin (his knockout resiliency has been getting poorer). GSP’s fights tend to be more exciting when there’s genuine animosity at work, so we should expect a fairly tense chess match, and probably some mid-round trash talking from Diaz.

In our last installment of the division striking assessments we’ll take a look at the UFC Heavyweight division in all their jaw-breaking glory.

How the Analysis Works:


In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:

Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, orjabs to the head), where the average for UFC Welterweights is about 24%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And in order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy that throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division as we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.

Standup Striking Pace: prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.

Knockdown Rate: the objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.

The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through 2012, including UFC 155.  Some of these fighters competed in other weight classes or at catchweight, but for the purposes of this analysis, that data was still included and analyzed. Fighters with only one fight or less than 15 minutes of fight time were not included in the graph.


By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics


Wondering if you’re “big” or just “average?” Just how big is average for a UFC fighter? Well that depends on the weight class obviously. Here’s the current UFC roster of fighters put into divisions with average (mean) height and reach (mean averages based on UFC Roster as of June, 2013). Next time someone says a fighter is “big for their weight class,” check the facts first.

The range of UFC divisions spans 140 pounds, which on average translates into about one foot of additional height and reach from the Flyweights to the Heavyweights. It’s important to note there is plenty of variability that occurs with in each weight class. Bodies are tall and lean or sometimes short and stocky. And the larger the division is, the wider the range of maximums and minimums. Just think of heavyweights Stefan Struve and Pat Barry facing off with over a one foot height differential in the same weight class.

It’s also interesting that the average size of each weight class has been increasing in recent years. If we were to go back to 2005 or so, what we would see is the average height and reach being lower in all divisions. This is due to the highly competitive evolution of modern MMA which has driven fighters to pack more athleticism into a leaner body. The result is numerous fighters dropping weight classes to remain optimally competitive, and finding ways to optimize their bodies for fighting.

And look at the new women’s division. At Bantamweight there’s a discernible difference in size between male and female fighters weighing in at the same weight limit. The men’s division has been around a lot longer and has greater competition from a large pool of contenders, who are experienced pros at cutting weight. And despite their larger frames, they manage to pack more muscle and size onto the scale on weigh-in day. Competition always pushes the limits of human anthropometrics.

So how do you measure up? Are you a lightweight that eats like a middleweight? Or are you a welterweight in the frame of a bantamweight?



By Matt Saccaro


Lambasting the UFC over the perceived lack of card quality has become posh over the last few years. Go to the UG or any other Internet MMA destination and you’ll see people chiding the UFC as the “Bud Light of MMA” due to the supposedly “watered down” cards.

These same people recall the Good ol’ Days™ when title fights were plentiful, guys like Elvis Sinosic and Wesley “Cabbage” Correira were in the cage and out of the unemployment line, and each match on the card was ten times more exciting than Griffin-Bonnar I.

We at CagePotato wanted to find out if these sentiments were true — if the cards meant more in the old days and weren’t loaded with filler — or if such thoughts were just the result of nostalgia-goggles that ultimately did nothing.

What we decided to do was this: Look at the amount of UFC pay-per-view events per year since Zuffa purchased the company in 2001. Of those PPVs, we counted up how many had title fights — and were therefore, in theory, worth paying for — and how many didn’t have title fights.

At the top of this post you’ll see a handy-dandy double bar graph to illustrate our findings. The blue bars represent the number of pay-per-view events with title fights, the red bars represent the PPVs without title fights.

Let’s break down the numbers…


Every UFC PPV from 2001-2003 had at least one title fight. UFC 33 had three title fights. The first non-title fight PPV in the Zuffa era was UFC 47, headlined by (of course) Dana White’s best buddy, Chuck Liddell.

The amount of UFC PPVs held each year was in the single digits until the post-TUF boom.  The UFC held 10 PPVs in 2006 — the year after the first season of The Ultimate Fighter aired and when the show was starting to pick up steam. But even then, the cards weren’t “watered down” as fans would say. Only one PPV in 2006 didn’t have a title fight: UFC 60, main evented by Matt Hughes vs. Royce Gracie.

There were four PPVs without a title fight in 2007, although only three of them were by design (there was no title defense at UFC 67 because Travis Lutter couldn’t make weight for his fight against Anderson Silva). It’s likely that by 2007 the UFC was starting to experiment with their newfound popularity. Could they sell cards solely based on their brand name alone? Pay-per-view main events like Rich Franklin vs. Yushin Okami, Chuck Liddell vs. Keith Jardine, and Michael Bisping vs. Rashad Evans helped them answer this question — apparently in the negative, since 2008 had more PPVs with title fights and fewer without.

Things got choppy in 2009. Nearly half of the UFC’s 13 PPVs that year didn’t have a belt on the line. Unfortunately, this trend would continue for 2010 and 2011 — where 7/15 and 7/16 PPVs, respectively, had only “contenders” or guys that were “in the mix” rather than champions and challengers.

It’s also worth noting that the featherweight and bantamweight divisions made their UFC debut in 2011. These weight classes have since proven to be poor draws that can’t hold the casual fan’s attention. Of the seven PPV title fights in 2011, one of them was from those weight classes (UFC 132’s bantamweight battle between Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber). Also, to be fair to the UFC, there were two title fights given away for free in 2011: Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson on Versus and Junior Dos Santos vs. Cain Velasquez on FOX.

By 2012, the UFC apparently learned its lesson and realized that people didn’t want to pay for cards that had zero implications (you know, cards like UFC 161). Only two out of 13 PPVs in 2012 were without title fights. However, again, of the 11 PPVS that had titles on the line, two of them were titles from weight classes below 155 pounds.

We’re still in the middle of 2013 but, so far, we’ve had six PPVs. One (UFC 161) hasn’t had a title fight. Two have starred champions from the lighter weight classes (UFC 156 headlined by Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar and UFC 157 headlined by Ronda Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche). There have also been three free title fights, one in the lightweight division, one in the flyweight division and one in bantamweight division.
There are five scheduled PPVs so far for the rest of 2013. They all have title fights on them; one of those title fights is in the featherweight division. There’s also a free flyweight title fight on FOX.

If there’s one concise narrative that can be drawn from all the numbers, it’s this: The UFC had more stacked cards in the beginning of the Zuffa era because it had fewer fighters and a smaller audience. With less shows being put on overall, it wasn’t a challenge to stick title fights on every one of them. When the UFC’s audience exploded after TUF and demand for the product increased, Dana & Company saw all the money that could be made from promoting more events, and began upping the number of PPVs. Eventually, they got greedy. There were three times as many non-title fight PPVs in 2009 than there were in 2008, for example.

However, fortunately, the UFC scaled back on Couture vs. Coleman-level PPVs (at least for the time being). Hopefully they’ll keep things this way until a new MMA bubble emerges.



By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics


How many UFC fights end inside the distance? The overall percentage is 60%, which includes fights all the way back to 1993. But at the halfway point of 2013, that number is only 50%, year to date. I’d say “roughly 50%” but it’s not — it’s precisely 50%. Out of 176 fights so far in 2013, 88 have been finished by (T)KO or submission. That’s exactly half. How does that stack up with prior years in the UFC? Well, here’s the annual finish rate for UFC fights by year, with 2013 recorded through UFC 161.

The bad news for fans of highlight reel finishes is that the overall trend is down. But the good news is that the recent trend is completely flat, which is a level of stability never before seen in the UFC. As in troubled economies, after a steep decline “flat” starts looking like the new “up.” But there are other patterns underlying the movement of this line.

A closer look at the historical finish rate reveals how this metric is impacted by various drivers. First, notice that all fights ended in the first two years of the UFC. That’s because there was no other option; fighters fought until one of them won. There were no time limits, and no judges. When time limits were introduced in 1995, we see that immediately some fights went the distance, though they were all “draws” at first. Judges were brought in at the end of that year to declare winners of fights that went the distance, and the overall parity of competition improved throughout the decade forcing their involvement more frequently.

But it was the institution of weight classes that give us the best insight into the trends during the modern Zuffa era. When finish rates hit a decade high of 75% in 2005, it was the first full year the UFC went without lightweight fights. Lightweights were officially brought back in 2006, and by 2007 the division became the most commonly competed weight class, with more fights taking place at 155 pounds than in any other division. (That has remained true every year since.) During this time, finish rates dropped 13% overall, reflecting the mix of smaller fighters. Rebounding in 2008, the finish rate hit 68% in a year where slightly more fights occurred in heavier divisions than in years prior. But this composition of divisions quickly went on a diet, and over the next two years fighters began migrating down weight classes and tilting the scales towards smaller divisions.

This period in 2009-2010 saw the greatest decline in finish rates combined with the rapid increase in televised UFC events, and likely an overall increase in the competitiveness within the UFC. In 2010 the first featherweights were introduced before the year’s end, with the WEC merger taking full effect in 2011. By 2012 the first flyweights hit the Octagon, and by then half of all UFC fights occurred at lightweight or below.

The most interesting trend to note is that despite the slimming trend for UFC fighters, the overall finish rate has completely stabilized since 2010. As we saw earlier smaller divisions generally finish fewer fights, due primarily to less knockout power, but the dropoff stabilizes in the smallest divisions. So despite more and more fights in the flyweight through featherweight divisions, the finish rate is no longer dropping with the declining share of heavier fights.

The rapid evolution of MMA has forced athletes to step up their game. We’ll explain how submissions have evolved over time another day, but it’s safe to say that the overall level of grappling talent in the UFC has also gone up, which may be a contributing factor to some of the historical decline in finish rates. What will be interesting is how this trend evolves now that the UFC is approaching a stable mix of divisions. Despite the ever-increasing level of talent and athleticism in the UFC, fighters are still finishing opponents half of the time — which is impressive all by itself.