lots of pretty numbers here.
The Argument for or against Cruiserweight: Revisited (Again)Posted on August 22, 2012 by jcsAbout a year ago, I posted the
first update to my
original post.
I feel the need to keep revisiting this as we get more data, because
every few months I see this topic bubble up to the top of various sites
and forums.
In summary, we started tracking weigh-in weights, and I wanted to see
if the heavier fighters won more often than lighter fighters. Using
the same ideals as before, with an even larger data set:
- In 778 non-draw official fights where both fighters weighed in at
different weights, but above 210 (our Light Heavyweight limit), 390 were
won by the lighter fighter, and 388 won by the heavier fighter (49.9%).
- When you allow for mismatches and include matches in which only one
fighter had to weigh above 210, the total tally increases to 946 and the
gap widens, with the heavier fighter only winning 455 (48.1%).
- For the record, across the board, the heavier fighter has won 52.5% of the time.
The results are nearly identical as before, though the heavier
fighter (again) gained ground in all three statistics. There are a few
possibilities to explain this and it could be a combination of:
- Heavyweight fighters depend more on size than skill.
- Weight differences are a bigger issue for smaller fighters.
- And as for the gaining trend… the data set STILL isn’t large enough and freakshow-type matches are decreasing.
I decided to take this one step further —
for all weights:
| Weight Diff (lb) | Heavier Won % |
| 0.1-2.49 | 52.7% |
| 2.5-4.9 | 55.4% |
| 5.0-9.9 | 52.9% |
| 10.0-24.9 | 49.0% |
| 25.0-49.9 | 50.4% |
| 50 | 33.7% |
The range of 2.5-5lb used to be at 57.4%, but has since dropped off.
The above table proves one thing though, that weight advantages do
matter, but there is a tipping point. Too much weight can leave a
fighter vulnerable. Though, you cannot exclude the possibility of smart
matchmaking.
OK, the last exercise (sans the top two differences, not enough data). Same table, but
excluding Heavyweight matches:
| Weight Diff (lb) | Heavier Won % |
| 0.1-2.49 | 52.8% |
| 2.5-4.9 | 55.8% |
| 5.0-9.9 | 53.0% |
| 10 | 50.5% |
Interestingly enough, the 2.5-4.9lb difference has the largest success for the heavier fighter AGAIN.
Lastly, when fighters weighing 215-235lb (conceivably those who may
move down or into a 220ish division), fought against fighters 240lb
(conceivably those who would stay at a new Heavyweight), the heavier
fighter prevailed 101-100 — almost even.
So what did we learn this time? As a whole, weight advantage seems
to matter, but when you look specifically at Heavyweights, it seems to
matter less. Even in the above statement, setting strict limits on a
pseudo-Heavyweight split is nearly dead even. Then again, this
particular data set is still extremely small.
In conclusion, personally, I still don’t think a Cruiserweight division is currently needed.
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