UFN 25 Predictions

Jake Shields vs. Jake Ellenberger

This fight seems similar to most every fight Jake Shields has. He is outmatched striking but at an advantage in overall grappling. His unique mix of high level wrestling and very high level jiu jitsu make him a handful for anyone on the ground. His takedowns are deceptively strong and he is the kind of fighter who will chain takedowns without a second thought if the first one doesn't work. His only goal is to get his opponent down and keep them there. He might find Jake Ellenberger to be a challenge given Ellenbergers wrestling abilities and the power in his hands. It is likely that Ellenberger is spending most of his time fending takedowns and even consecutive attempts for them while he looks to land a good shot. I don't think Ellenberger will be looking for takedowns of his own given Shields' ability to sweep and gain position. Despite Shields being able to pull his game off time and again I'm going to go out on a limb and go with the upset here. Reason being has more to do with Shields' recent loss of his father, I just can't see his mind being focussed on training over these last two weeks. That isn't something he can afford against someone who has the skillset that Ellenberger does.

Prediction: Jake Ellenberger by Decision


Alan Belcher vs. Jason MacDonald

Alot of question marks surround this fight. Belcher hasn't competed in over fifteen months, and is coming off of multiple surgeries to repair the eye injury that almost forced his retirement. Jason MacDonald has fought all over the US and Canada during his twelve year career. There are alot of unknown variables surrounding this fight, mostly on Belcher's side of things. There is no way of knowing how well his eye healed, if it did heal. There is no way to know how his cardio will be after so long, or how rusty he will or won't be. Under normal circumstances Belcher should have no problem laying waste to Jason MacDonald, however under normal circumstances it is unlike he would be fighting Jason in the first place. I still think Belcher finds a way to win this, but I won't rule out the possibility that MacDonald finds himself with his hand raised due mostly to a poor performance from Alan.

Prediction: Alan Belcher by (T)KO


Erik Koch vs. Jonathan Brookins

A classic matchup between a striker and grappler. Erik Koch is a Roufus Sport product on the rise after his knockout win over Rafael Assuncao. Jonathan Brookins is a young up and coming grappler out of the Gracie Barra team. This is more or less what you would expect from the matchup. The striker has the edge in striking while the grappler has the advantage on the ground. What will determine a winner is who can get/keep this fight in their preferred realm. Unfortunately for Brookins this situation doesn't favor him. Having not fought since December and enduring two injuries in that time, being pulled from two bouts over them coupled with Koch's sprawling abilities do not paint a pretty picture for the Floridian. I see him getting worked over standing and finding little to no success taking Koch down. Brookins has a chance with his jab but if he can't work with it he is going to have a rough night to be sure.

Prediction: Erik Koch by (T)KO


Cody McKenzie vs. Vagner Rocha

I'll be honest here. I'm surprised Cody McKenzie still has a place in the UFC. He is literally the latest in a long line of one trick ponies in this sport and thats putting it lightly. He has the guillotine and not much else. Unfortunately I just don't see him pulling it off against a far better grappler like Rocha. Rocha may have been systematically broken down by Donald Cerrone but Cody is no Cerrone. Rocha may even have a striking advantage here, he definitely has the power striking edge. Another concern for McKenzie is cardio, he has been known to fade late before and Rocha seems like the kind of fighter who just might take advantage of that. I see this fight being contested standing just long enough for Rocha to establish himself as being able to hit pretty hard. Once it's on the ground though Cody is in over his head.

Prediction: Vagner Rocha by Submission.

Just some quick predictions

Shields via sub in round 3 in a very competitive fight. I'll say a RNC.

I think J-Mac pulls off the sub in his fight to. Damn that dude is a game fighter. I'll say he pulls that off sometime in round 2.

I think both Cody and Brookins get a wake up call here. I think both fighters will be dominated and finished in the 1st rounds.

free or not, this has to be one of the worst UFC cards ever.

Outside of the possibility of Belcher putting in a vintage performance I see little in terms of entertainment value here.

Koch might entertain

captain organic wrote:

free or not, this has to be one of the worst UFC cards ever.

Outside of the possibility of Belcher putting in a vintage performance I see little in terms of entertainment value here.

Well you could see Kotch put Brookings to sleep. Also the main event is still an interesting matchup and an important fight for the WW division. But yeah I get your point.

I'm intrigued by all the top 3 fights. Want to see Dunham beat the shit out of Bailey as well

bobbitt15 wrote:

I'm intrigued by all the top 3 fights. Want to see Dunham beat the shit out of Bailey as well

+1

"GOOD SHAMAR GOOD!....YES SHAMAR!"

OU wrote:

"GOOD SHAMAR GOOD!....YES SHAMAR!"

its your time! its your time!

captain organic wrote:

free or not, this has to be one of the worst UFC cards ever.

Outside of the possibility of Belcher putting in a vintage performance I see little in terms of entertainment value here.

Here is something along this subject.
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2011/9/16/2429444/does-the-ufc-even-care-about-ultimate-fight-night-25-dana-white-jake-shields

I have Shields losing this fight and then journeying back up to MW

As always love the predictions Ludo. You know if all you motherfuckers would put the time in to write some long detailed shit.... I'd read it.


But I think Jake takes the win here. LOL I'm to much. No but really I'm going Shields Cesar Gracie JJ for the win!

bobbitt15 wrote:

I have Shields losing this fight and then journeying back up to MW

Funny I just saw a BE article today saying Jake needs to move back to MW to stay relevant. Might not be a bad idea.

Yeah this card is literally full of fights I couldn't help but detest even thinking about long enough to bother breaking down. Thats why there are so few aside from the fact that almost none of them have any kind of relevance beyond "these two guys might put on a decent scrap". I'm still kind of concerned about Belcher.

Ludo wrote:

Yeah this card is literally full of fights I couldn't help but detest even thinking about long enough to bother breaking down. Thats why there are so few aside from the fact that almost none of them have any kind of relevance beyond "these two guys might put on a decent scrap". I'm still kind of concerned about Belcher.

J-Mac is going to give him hell.

yeah MacDonald has the tools to give him a tough fight back. It's still kind of fucked up what happened with Belcher. Hopefully he can get back on track and put all this behind him.

Ludo wrote:

yeah MacDonald has the tools to give him a tough fight back. It's still kind of fucked up what happened with Belcher. Hopefully he can get back on track and put all this behind him.

This is a tough fight back. MacDonald is a gamer.

On spike, not promoting PPV later in the evening, throwaway broadcast.

Just looked at the full card...wow it looks weak outside of the main event.

still waiting for that payback for Abu Dhabi

KingsOwn19 wrote:

Just looked at the full card...wow it looks weak outside of the main event.

still waiting for that payback for Abu Dhabi

UFC on Versus 6.

Not enough

How is Dominick Cruz against Mighty Mouse not enough to make up for Andersons bullshit at 112?

Ellenberger by split, not that I think hields is lousy, far from it. but Ellenberger is a true scrapper.

KingsOwn19 wrote:

Not enough

word.