http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2011/7/1/2254763/ufc-132-gambling-spotlight-dominick-cruz-urijah-faberChris Leben wins decision vs. Wanderlei Silva +799 (5Dimes)For starters, Bodog has this prop at +440. That's a pretty big
discrepancy, even if we factor in the juice on the Bodog line.
Wanderlei's coming off a 15-month layoff, plus he's 34 years old (though
he looks 44 at this point). And while he knocked down
Michael Bisping,
we still don't know if his power will translate with the cut 185
pounds. I don't think Leben's improved too much since his bed-pissing
days, but this is more of a bet against Silva than anything else.
Dominick Cruz wins decision vs. Urijah Faber +125 (Bodog) and Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber completes 5 rounds -225 (5Dimes)If you're going to bet on Cruz -- who is around -160 at most books --
you might as well take him for plus odds by decision. Cruz doesn't have
the power of
Mike Brown,
plus Faber made it through five rounds against Brazilian torture device
Jose Aldo. If there's a finish, I think Faber catches him with a
guillotine, but I expect Cruz to be prepared for the scrambles.
Dong Hyun Kim wins decision vs. Carlos Condit +120 (Bodog)Similar reasoning as the Cruz bet above (though I also have Kim straight up at EVEN). Condit gets taken down, a lot --
John Alessio brought him down four times, and Kim's top game is more smothering than it is about finding a finish.
Melvin Guillard wins decision vs. Shane Roller +260 (Bodog)I have Melvin straight up as well, but getting near 3-1 odds for a
decision on a lightweight who trains with Greg Jackson? Yeah, I'll take
that.