Alves favored over Fitch

I was just checking out some odds and 1 that stuck out to me alittle was Thiago Alves was a favorite over John Fitch. It shouldnt surpise me too much cause I do think Alves will beat Fitch but I know alot of people on this board think different. What do u guys think should Alves be the favorite over Fitch?

Yes

Alves! I thought I would be the only one. Lot of Fitch homers on here.

Im an Alves fan so you know i got him.

I like Alves in this fight too. He is too athletic for Fitch.

Its MMA so anything can happen, but when you already have a win over the guy and have beaten everyone in your path minus GSP then I have a hard time saying Alves should be favored.

Fitch has lost 1 fight in his last 20, to fucking GSP, he isn't pretty but he is good, he also already finished Alves, why wouldn't Fitch be the favorite?

Alves is more experienced now, and the size and athleticism will come into play. Alves bullies his way into the knockout.

Thinking someone is going to win doesn't mean they are favored .. Fitch is "favored" going into the fight... or maybe I am thinking to much in betting terms and the OP was asking who do you think will win.

Wolfgangsta wrote:

Alves is more experienced now, and the size and athleticism will come into play. Alves bullies his way into the knockout.

Fitch is a huge WW too. When have we seen him bullied?

I'm with Farm on this one

No way should Alves be the favorite. I think Fitch wins by assrape technique here. He likes the clinch too much and Alves has shown a tendency to get controlled in the clinch(IE Koscheck). Fitch will find a way to control the fight from a dominant position like he does to everyone not named St Pierre.

Kos controlled Alves Ludo? Hmmm I don't recall that I just remember Alves stopping all his shots and knocking him silly a few times. I believe Alves has grown so much since he has been in the UFC. That fight he had with Fitch was like over 3 years ago kind of hard to use that as a barometer.

I'm surprised Fitch is the underdog here. His only loss in the UFC was to GSP and he already holds a win over Alves. I know neither guy is the same fighter but still, I don't see why Alves would be favored. I think Fitch will probably win this fight, just won't be too exciting.

Actually, Muay, Kos did kind of control Alves along the fence. I rewatched the fight not long ago and recapped every time they clinched on another forum. Enjoy.


Round one had zero clinching.

Round two had a brief clinch from about 3:17 left until about 2:45 where Thiago allowed himself and Kos to rest while neither was really working(save for the foot stomps). Thiago turned an over under and pressed Kos to the cage before seperating about 3 seconds later.
Kos shoots for a takedown at about 1:10 left of the second, it fails and he keeps trying for another for about 46 seconds before Josh raises to a bodylock, Thiago has the over under again but he's not doing anything but throwing weak arm punches and getting leaned on.

4:17 left in the third after rocking Koscheck Thiago clinches, pushing Koscheck into the corner they weren't far from before seperating after no strikes or anything with 4:11 left.
Kos initiates a clinch after being rocked again at 3:57 left, Koscheck turns Thiago and pushes Alves' back to the cage at 3:54 before working for a takedown thats stuffed twice. Alves pushes Koscheck away at 3:28 left. There is no more clinch work for the rest of the fight.

Two minutes worth of clinching(roughly) and Thiago was pressed up against the cage for all but about 10 seconds of it. I wouldn't call that bullying Koscheck. He definitely beat Koscheck down and ate him alive standing. I was incorrect when I said he looked less than impressive in the Koscheck fight, simply because he was able to avoid getting taken down except once for about 3 seconds. But the overall message about Alves in the clinch is spot on, including that fight.



http://www.investwithsports.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?f=47&t=7634&start=0

Yeah but Kos did nothing effective with the clinch. I mean Alves did not get tired nor take any damage from it. So in a sense Kos made the effort to clench and go for takedowns here and then and was unsuccessful. I believe Kos is more athletic then Fitch but Fitch is more of a grinder that sticks to the game plan. If he can secure takedowns he wins. If not he loses. I think its that simple.

We weren't discussing whether he did anything in the clinch. You said you didn't recall Alves getting controlled in the fight. Being held in a place you don't want to be for the majority of 2 rounds out of a 3 round fight would count as being controlled, especially by a smaller man for the most part.

I guess i can agree with that Ludo.

GolbeZ wrote:

Thinking someone is going to win doesn't mean they are favored .. Fitch is "favored" going into the fight... or maybe I am thinking to much in betting terms and the OP was asking who do you think will win.

I may be misunderstanding what you wrote, but in betting terms Fitch is NOT favored going into the fight, which is why tim made the poll asking if people agree that Alves should be the betting favorite (which he is now and has been since the line was posted). He was not not asking people for their personal fight picks.

Fitch is as high as +145 on some sites and no lower than +100.

muayjitsu wrote:

Kos controlled Alves Ludo? Hmmm I don't recall that I just remember Alves stopping all his shots and knocking him silly a few times. I believe Alves has grown so much since he has been in the UFC. That fight he had with Fitch was like over 3 years ago kind of hard to use that as a barometer.

Yup I agree! This thread should be bumped after the fight.

Would Fisher be a favorite of those two were slated to rematch? Alves by KTF to the O.

Wolfgangsta wrote:

Would Fisher be a favorite of those two were slated to rematch? Alves by KTF to the O.

He would if he didn't drop to 155, lose to several fighters, and did in fact beat a lot of top competition at 170.

Who will be surprised if Fitch wins? I wouldn't be overly shocked, but I expect Alves to make a statement.

I won't much be surprised either way. But the more likely scenario is Fitch taking this one home.

Not shocked or surprised either way.

I think the only way I'll be surprised is if there is a flying sub or Fitch dominates Alves with faster more accurate hands.