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 UFN 25 Predictions

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Ludo
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Favorite Fighter(s) : The Prodigy, The Great, Viking Dahmer, The Phenom
Posts : 6476
Join date : 2009-09-12

20110916
PostUFN 25 Predictions



Jake Shields vs. Jake Ellenberger

This fight seems similar to most every fight Jake Shields has. He is outmatched striking but at an advantage in overall grappling. His unique mix of high level wrestling and very high level jiu jitsu make him a handful for anyone on the ground. His takedowns are deceptively strong and he is the kind of fighter who will chain takedowns without a second thought if the first one doesn't work. His only goal is to get his opponent down and keep them there. He might find Jake Ellenberger to be a challenge given Ellenbergers wrestling abilities and the power in his hands. It is likely that Ellenberger is spending most of his time fending takedowns and even consecutive attempts for them while he looks to land a good shot. I don't think Ellenberger will be looking for takedowns of his own given Shields' ability to sweep and gain position. Despite Shields being able to pull his game off time and again I'm going to go out on a limb and go with the upset here. Reason being has more to do with Shields' recent loss of his father, I just can't see his mind being focussed on training over these last two weeks. That isn't something he can afford against someone who has the skillset that Ellenberger does.

Prediction: Jake Ellenberger by Decision


Alan Belcher vs. Jason MacDonald

Alot of question marks surround this fight. Belcher hasn't competed in over fifteen months, and is coming off of multiple surgeries to repair the eye injury that almost forced his retirement. Jason MacDonald has fought all over the US and Canada during his twelve year career. There are alot of unknown variables surrounding this fight, mostly on Belcher's side of things. There is no way of knowing how well his eye healed, if it did heal. There is no way to know how his cardio will be after so long, or how rusty he will or won't be. Under normal circumstances Belcher should have no problem laying waste to Jason MacDonald, however under normal circumstances it is unlike he would be fighting Jason in the first place. I still think Belcher finds a way to win this, but I won't rule out the possibility that MacDonald finds himself with his hand raised due mostly to a poor performance from Alan.

Prediction: Alan Belcher by (T)KO


Erik Koch vs. Jonathan Brookins

A classic matchup between a striker and grappler. Erik Koch is a Roufus Sport product on the rise after his knockout win over Rafael Assuncao. Jonathan Brookins is a young up and coming grappler out of the Gracie Barra team. This is more or less what you would expect from the matchup. The striker has the edge in striking while the grappler has the advantage on the ground. What will determine a winner is who can get/keep this fight in their preferred realm. Unfortunately for Brookins this situation doesn't favor him. Having not fought since December and enduring two injuries in that time, being pulled from two bouts over them coupled with Koch's sprawling abilities do not paint a pretty picture for the Floridian. I see him getting worked over standing and finding little to no success taking Koch down. Brookins has a chance with his jab but if he can't work with it he is going to have a rough night to be sure.

Prediction: Erik Koch by (T)KO


Cody McKenzie vs. Vagner Rocha

I'll be honest here. I'm surprised Cody McKenzie still has a place in the UFC. He is literally the latest in a long line of one trick ponies in this sport and thats putting it lightly. He has the guillotine and not much else. Unfortunately I just don't see him pulling it off against a far better grappler like Rocha. Rocha may have been systematically broken down by Donald Cerrone but Cody is no Cerrone. Rocha may even have a striking advantage here, he definitely has the power striking edge. Another concern for McKenzie is cardio, he has been known to fade late before and Rocha seems like the kind of fighter who just might take advantage of that. I see this fight being contested standing just long enough for Rocha to establish himself as being able to hit pretty hard. Once it's on the ground though Cody is in over his head.

Prediction: Vagner Rocha by Submission.

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